Will the Broncos remain masters of close games?
The AFC Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday with our Broncos vs. Bills tip. On paper, this matchup could hardly be more evenly balanced. Some bookmakers have the Broncos ahead, others the Bills – whom we trust a little more, mainly because of Josh Allen.
Buffalo showed they were ready for the playoffs with their win in Jacksonville last Sunday, where they also had to prove themselves to be very resilient. The Broncos were able to rest – which is not always a positive thing, as recent years have often shown.
Last year, for example, the best team in the NFC, the Lions, were knocked out in their first playoff game after a bye week in round 1. During the break, aggressiveness and focus can quickly be lost, whereas the Bills had to be fully focused last weekend.
That’s one reason why our prediction for Broncos vs. Bills is an away win for Buffalo. In addition to the quarterback duel between Nix and Allen, Josh Allen should win so convincingly that even the strong Broncos defense won’t be able to do anything about it. However, we don’t see a high-scoring game coming our way.
Kick-off for the opening game of NFL playoff round 2 is on Saturday at 10:30 p.m. in Denver. The game can be watched live on RTL and DAZN, both with German commentators.
Our top tip is a Bills win, which we will discuss later, but we also see under points as a strong betting option in this matchup. The Broncos defense is very strong, and the Bills defense is also a top 7 unit in terms of yards this season.
Denver Broncos – Buffalo Bills Head-to-head comparison / H2H statistics
Four of the last five head-to-head matches went to the Bills, including the playoff matchup almost exactly a year ago. At that time, the game took place in Buffalo, but the clear 31-7 score is already a first indication that this matchup suits the Bills.
Buffalo has the best pass defense in the league (156.9 yards per game), so the Broncos will have to rely heavily on their running game. However, they are not among the top 15 teams in this area this season, which makes the matchup against Buffalo problematic from their point of view.
In their defeat in January, they only managed 79 rushing yards, which is likely to be too little on Saturday. This means that the odds on Buffalo are slightly better for Broncos vs. Bills, especially with bookmakers who see the away team as slight underdogs.
Denver Broncos – Buffalo Bills Tip
The Broncos will have to get their running game going to have a chance. Just like the Jaguars, who managed to gain 154 rushing yards against Buffalo last Sunday. If the Broncos manage less than that, the pendulum will swing even more clearly in Buffalo’s favor.
All in all, our number one bet for Broncos vs. Bills is on Buffalo, followed by bets on under 46.5 total points. This mark was not exceeded in the last two matchups, and in January of last year, there were only 38 total points to admire.
If the Bills are to win, Josh Allen will of course be called upon to deliver once again. Against the Jaguars, he scored two rushing touchdowns himself. This was the second time in the last three games that he has achieved this feat. A bet on Allen scoring a touchdown is therefore another interesting option.
