Will the Chiefs remain the Jags’ bogey team?

To conclude NFL Game Day 5, we head to sunny Florida, where our Jaguars vs. Chiefs tip offers a closer line than expected. With only -3.5 points, the bookmakers see Kansas City ahead here – and that after they just destroyed the Baltimore Ravens (37:20).

This provides some interesting betting options, which we will discuss below. The reason why the line is so close probably has to do with Jacksonville’s 3:1 record, which, however, was achieved against rather weaker opponents.

The Chargers, Eagles, Giants, and Ravens were the four previous opponents of the Chiefs, while the Panthers, Bengals, Texans, and 49ers were those of the Jags. It should be noted that the Niners had to play without their entire star lineup. In this respect, the Chiefs’ 2-2 record is more impressive than the Jaguars’ 3-1 record.

So for Jacksonville vs. Kansas City, our prediction is an away win for the Chiefs, who could achieve a positive record for the first time this season. The Jags, on the other hand, will come back down to earth, as we don’t expect them to make the playoffs at the end of the season.

Kick-off for Monday Night Football is at 2:15 a.m. on Tuesday in Jacksonville. As always, the game will be broadcast live on DAZN.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Kansas City Chiefs Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Eight in a row – that’s how many consecutive wins the Chiefs have now racked up against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags’ last victory against the Chiefs dates back to 2009. At that time, Jags rookie Travis Hunter was just six years old.

It shows the discrepancy between these two teams in recent years, and why should that change in 2025 of all years? Even though the 2023 and 2024 champions got off to a somewhat slower start, their performance against the Ravens was very convincing.

With 382 total yards and 24 first downs, they moved the ball really well, and the Jags haven’t played against an offense like that yet this season. So for Jaguars vs. Chiefs, the odds clearly favor Kansas City. This applies to both handicap tips -3.5 and half-time/full-time or combination bets.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Kansas City Chiefs Tip

There is one statistic that could give the Jaguars hope in this matchup: they have already generated 13 turnovers. However, that hope is quickly dashed when we see that the Chiefs have only turned the ball over once this season (best in the league).

This makes the betting odds of Chiefs -3.5 our clear recommendation for Jaguars vs. Chiefs. To increase the value a little more, we can also increase the handicap to -6.5. We don’t believe the Jags will be able to keep this game close until the end.

As a player bet, we’re going with an oldie in this game. Travis Kelce has regularly received four or more targets so far this season. In what is likely his last season, Pat Mahomes will certainly want to treat his buddy to a touchdown or two – which is quite possible against this Jaguars defense.