How will co-favorites USA start the tournament?
The USA enters the 2026 Olympics and is more confident than ever that it will finally win the gold medal again this year. To do so, however, it needs to start with a win in our Latvia vs. USA prediction. Normally, this should be a fairly comfortable victory.
However, the US stars have not been able to beat Latvia by more than three goals since 2008, which is why we do not expect a goal fest on Thursday. Team USA will also need a few days to gain momentum and get into their stride.
That’s why the odds for Latvia vs. USA to score under 6.5 total goals are definitely playable. Incidentally, two of the last eight games ended 4-1 – a result that we consider very realistic for Thursday. Especially since the Latvians’ great strength is goaltending – with Elvis Merzlikins and Arturs Silovs, they have two NHL stars to choose from.
The first face-off of the game is on Thursday at 9:10 p.m. in Milan.
The USA is heavily favored (-3.5), which makes it difficult to place bets here. Especially at the beginning of such major tournaments, there are not often goal fests like 7-1 or similar scores.
We also consider the Latvians to be too strong defensively. Under points are therefore a good betting option in the Latvia vs. USA prediction, both for the game and for Team USA.
Latvia – USA Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The head-to-head record for the last ten games is 8:2 in favor of the USA, which already shows that the Latvians have not always been without a chance. Team USA’s status as heavy favorites is certainly linked to the participating NHL stars. But even they need time to gel, which doesn’t happen overnight.
At the last World Championships, the US boys scored six goals against the Latvians, but then they didn’t have Merzlikins or Silovs between the posts. In general, we see the strengths of the Latvian team more in defense, which also pushes under points.
So, in Latvia vs. USA, the betting odds on under 5.5 US goals are an interesting game option, as we don’t expect the Americans to be in perfect harmony with each other from the first face-off. The longer the Latvians can keep a clean sheet, the more their confidence will grow.
Latvia – USA Tip
Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Matthew Tkachuk, Noah Hanifin, Quinn Hughes, Connor Hellebuyck – on paper, the US team looks very strong. However, this has also been the case in other Olympic tournaments, and they have often had problems translating their star power onto the ice.
Therefore, we would be cautious about placing high handicap bets on Team USA. However, since the US stars are likely to be really good defensively, a bet on under 6.5 total goals for Latvia vs. USA is a good option that also takes into account Latvia’s defensive strength.
Which of these top US stars is most likely to be among the goal scorers? We’re betting on Jack Eichel, who has already represented the US at three World Championships and is therefore very familiar with European ice. A goal bet on Jack Eichel also gives us odds of up to 2.15, which we consider very fair.
