Will MvG also stumble against the German underdog?
The 33-year-old, who once put his career on hold to take a job offer in Italy as a thread tap technician, has won his first two games at the most important darts event of the year, sensationally reaching the third round. Starting at number 163 in the world rankings, the amateur soccer player from Peine has already worked his way into the top 100 in the live prize money rankings.
On Sunday evening, the likeable German will undoubtedly face the biggest highlight of his career so far. In the last match of the evening session, he will face Michael van Gerwen, one of the superstars of the scene. Despite the former German junior champion’s mega run, it would take a lot of imagination (and risk-taking) to bet on the underdog in the uneven duel between van Gerwen and Merk.
Anyone who wants to argue that Arno Merk eliminated a prominent double world champion in Peter Wright in the second round of the World Championship should bear in mind that “Snakebite” has been in poor form for months, had a disastrous 2025 and didn’t even break 80 in the average in the aforementioned duel with the shooting star from Lower Saxony. In last Tuesday’s clear 3-0 victory, Merk needed an average of 92, a 47% checkout rate, and just one 180, in short, an average performance, to knock the Scot out of the tournament.
However, it is also clear that the Super League winner will have to step up a gear or two on Sunday to have any real chance of reaching the round of 16. Admittedly, I don’t necessarily believe that the world number 163 is capable of this, so my preferred van Gerwen vs. Merk prediction is for a straight win for the Dutchman. You can bet on a 4-0 set win at Interwetten at strong odds of 2.55.
“Mighty Mike” has reached the final in three of his last six World Championship appearances and still ranks third in the PDC Order of Merit. After initial difficulties in his opening match against Japan’s Tatsunami, MvG, who has not always made friends in the scene recently due to his bold statements, was in brilliant form against William O’Connor. The three-time world champion played a 100 average, threw the maximum six times and hit an impressive 62% of his double fields to finish.
Given his vast experience and potential, it is not surprising that the odds are clearly in favor of the Dutchman ahead of the knockout match between van Gerwen and Merk. I also expect a confident victory for the 36-year-old and find the odds of 1.50 in the Betano app on the set handicap (-2.5), which even protects me against the underdog winning a set, absolutely playable.
Michael van Gerwen – Arno Merk Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
This is the first time ever that the two professionals have faced each other at the oche. This is due to the fact that Arno Merk, who was once considered a great talent and was already on the (smaller) stage at the World Championship of the competing BDO association at the tender age of 18, does not even have a tour card and is therefore rarely allowed to compete against the world’s elite. In terms of experience, there is no need for further explanation other than to say that a three-time world champion and six-time finalist is facing a man who will be hearing his entrance anthem at Alexandra Palace for only the third time.
Michael van Gerwen – Arno Merk Tip
Logically, there is always a certain risk involved in betting on low odds in darts. The 2026 World Darts Championship has also shown that surprises are the rule rather than the exception. 17 of the 32 seeded players have already been eliminated in the first two rounds. However, I don’t think it’s very realistic that the betting odds on the underdog will pay off again in the next David vs. Goliath match between van Gerwen and Merk. Without wanting to belittle the performance of the 33-year-old German, one shouldn’t be blinded by his victories against Huybrechts and Wright.
Van Gerwen is one of the world’s absolute best, threw a 100 average in the second round against O’Connor, and is the benchmark at this level when it comes to experience on the big stage. Once Merk has overcome his understandable nervousness, the match could already be over… I therefore recommend betting on van Gerwen to win by at least three sets against Merk.
