Will the Lions seize their last chance?
NFL playoffs without the Detroit Lions? What was considered unthinkable before the season will, statistically speaking, come true 94% of the time. That’s because the Lions’ playoff chances are now only 6%. They need two wins and two losses from the Packers.
The Vikings can also only dream of the playoffs this season, having been out of the running for quite some time. For them, it’s now just a matter of integrating quarterback J.J. McCarthy as a long-term solution, which has been working better and better recently. However, the quarterback is in danger of missing Thursday’s game (hand injury).
Since Detroit is the only team still playing for something, we see them as having slightly higher motivation. Especially since the Lions are already playing on Thursday and it is not yet clear what the Packers will do. We therefore assume that Detroit will start with all their stars (including the injured St. Brown).
Accordingly, our prediction for Vikings vs. Lions is an away win for Detroit, with the Lions pushing the pace from the start. Wounded lions are always the most dangerous, according to our slightly modified saying for the sporting part of the Christmas roast.
Kick-off for the NFC North matchup is on Thursday at 10:30 p.m. in Minneapolis. This game will also be available exclusively on the Netflix streaming service.
Minnesota Vikings – Detroit Lions Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
After the Cowboys game in Dallas, there will be another division duel on Christmas Day, which has been quite one-sided in recent years. In Minnesota vs. Detroit, the Lions have been the more frequent winners in recent years.
Six of the last eight meetings have gone to Detroit, and there is little to suggest that the Vikings will be successful on Thursday. They are coming off the back of three consecutive wins, but their 16-13 victory over the Giants was anything but convincing.
And now McCarthy is also likely to miss Thursday’s game after injuring his hand on Sunday. All in all, the odds on Detroit are our clear recommendation for Vikings vs. Lions. The low total of 44.5 points is also likely to be exceeded, as we expect the Lions to score over 27.5 total points (their average is 30.1).
Minnesota Vikings – Detroit Lions Tip
The second-best offense in terms of points (Lions: 30.1) faces the seventh-weakest offense (Vikings: 20.3). If McCarthy is out, we don’t expect the Vikings to score much more than those 20 points, which means they have virtually no chance of winning.
So for Vikings vs. Lions, a tip on Detroit -5.5 is our clear recommendation. It’s also important to strike quickly before it becomes known that McCarthy is indeed out. If that happens, the handicap on the Lions will be adjusted immediately.
As an alternative tip, we recommend a TD tip on Jahmyr Gibbs. While the Vikings’ defense is still quite good against the pass, they allow 127.6 yards per game against the run. Gibbs should get plenty of scoring opportunities and take advantage of them.
