Will the Pats clinch the AFC East already?
Showdown in the AFC East in our Patriots vs. Bills tip. If New England wins the second head-to-head matchup this season, they will have a 99.9% chance of winning the division – for the first time since 2019.
What seemed almost impossible before the season is now a very realistic scenario. The Pats have won their last five home games and look like one of the most solid teams in the NFL. With two losses in their last five games, the Bills are much more of a wild card.
Nevertheless, we expect a typical 50-50 duel on Sunday, as statistically speaking, both teams are very evenly matched. The Bills score 1.9 points more per game, but also concede 4.0 more. The Pats also have a slight edge in the turnover ratio with +1 (Bills: -1).
All in all, we expect a closely contested matchup in which win bets should not be our main focus. Rather, our prediction for Patriots vs. Bills is a high-scoring game with several touchdowns on both sides. We are particularly keeping an eye on James Cook on the Buffalo side.
Kick-off for the game is on Sunday at 7:00 p.m. in New England. The game will be broadcast live on RTL with Coach Esume and Björn Werner.
New England Patriots – Buffalo Bills Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
During Tom Brady’s time, the Bills were considered one of the Pats’ favorite opponents. However, after his departure, the tide turned and the Bills won seven of the following nine games. The last two duels, however, with Drake Maye at the helm of the Pats, went back to New England.
Rarely has a duel been more evenly matched among betting providers than this one. No matter which bookmaker you look at, both are neck and neck at 95% – and for the rest, only a few fractions of a point separate the two teams.
For Sunday’s Patriots vs. Bills game, the odds on over points, over touchdowns, and player bets are interesting. James Cook stands out in particular, having already found the end zone eight times this season. On the New England side, we’re leaning towards Kayshon Boutte, who already has six touchdowns to his name – but the betting odds are so high that we’re getting tremendous value.
New England Patriots – Buffalo Bills Tip
Do we trust Josh Allen more or Drake Maye? In the end, this matchup will also be a quarterback duel, as neither offense has any big playmakers. Only James Cook and Treveyon Henderson can be considered 1A in the league here.
Based on Allen’s current form (three rushing TDs in the last two games), we are leaning slightly towards Buffalo here, but without making a betting recommendation. Instead, our bet of choice for Patriots vs. Bills is a touchdown by James Cook. He has come close in recent games and has often been stopped at the 1-yard line. He will also have an enormous workload as a running back.
We have already given player bets, so our alternative in this matchup is a bet on over 4.5 total touchdowns or over 2.5 touchdowns by the Patriots. They should be able to keep up well in what is expected to be a shootout. Especially on the ground, as the Bills allow the fifth-most rushing yards of any team (135.2).
