Will the Bucs win this crucial division matchup?
The NFC South is going crazy, and right in the middle of it all is our Buccaneers vs. Falcons tip for Thursday night. This is a matchup between the two pre-season favorites to win the division, although only one of those teams is still in contention: the Bucs.
The Falcons are having another season to forget, and to make matters worse, they have to give up their 2026 first-round pick to the Rams. So, in the end, they don’t have much left to play for. But what could also liberate them now is that the pressure is off their season.
The Buccaneers, on the other hand, are under a lot of pressure on Thursday, as they simply cannot afford another defeat within the division. Otherwise, the Panthers will overtake them and the Bucs will be completely out of the playoffs.
That doesn’t make predictions for Thursday night’s game easy, but one thing is certain in this matchup: points will be scored. In 16 of the last 20 games, this matchup has produced at least 45 points, so our prediction for Bucs vs. Falcons is a game in which we can confidently bet on over points.
Kickoff for this NFC South matchup is at 2:15 a.m. on Friday in Tampa, Florida. The game will be broadcast live on the DAZN streaming service.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Atlanta Falcons Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
We have already mentioned the high-scoring games in recent years in this matchup (apart from the last duel, which ended only 23:20). But in the three previous encounters, there were always at least 54 total points. That makes Thursday’s 44.5 extremely low.
Of course, this is also due to the poor form of the Falcons, whom the bookmakers do not have much faith in here. However, the Bucs’ defense is not in top form at the moment either, conceding 24 points against the Saints. The higher-rated Falcons should also be able to score at least 20.5 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Atlanta Falcons Tip
We haven’t decided on a winner yet, and there’s a reason for that. The Buccaneers are naturally considered the slight favorites at home, but that’s deceptive at the moment. Bijan Robinson’s Falcons can easily make this a close game with a few big plays, which makes it difficult to bet on a winner. With an average of 330.0 yards, Atlanta is actually averaging 15.0 yards more per game than Tampa.
That’s why our preferred bet for Buccaneers vs. Falcons is over 44.5 total points. If we had to pick a winner, we would probably go with the Bucs, as they may even have Mike Evans back on Thursday. Their top wide receiver had to sit out the last six games due to a broken collarbone and would give them a significant boost in the passing game.
As a player bet, we’re still going with another Bucs player for Thursday. Bucky Irving also just returned from injury and promptly scored a touchdown against New Orleans. He could do the same against the Falcons’ vulnerable run defense, which makes a TD bet on Irving very interesting.
