Will Turkey march undefeated into the European Championship semifinals?
Apart from the German national basketball team, which will play its quarterfinal against Luka Doncic and his Slovenian teammates on Wednesday, there is only one team that is still undefeated at Euro Basket 2025. We are talking about the Turkish team, which won all five group games and ultimately prevailed in the round of 16 against Sweden.
Now, coach Ergin Ataman’s team faces the strong Polish team, which already impressed at EuroBasket 2022 by finishing fourth in the final standings. According to the betting providers, however, the “12 Dev Adam” is still the clear favorite between Turkey and Poland.
However, it is also clear that there have already been numerous surprises and unexpected results at this European Championship. For example, top favorites Serbia were sensationally knocked out by Finland in the round of 16. Spain, the defending champions, did not even make it to the knockout stage. However, using other upsets as a basis for a Turkey vs. Poland prediction in favor of the underdog would not be a truly plausible approach.
Nevertheless, there are other indications that, in my opinion, make point handicaps in favor of the “Biało-czerwoni” a very good bet. For example, the Poles are more difficult to predict. The offensive load is spread across several shoulders, while NBA star Alperen Sengün leads the Turks in all three of the most important statistical categories (points, rebounds, assists).
In addition, head coach Igor Milicic’s team, which has a powerful go-to guy in its ranks in the form of naturalized American Jordan Loyd from Euroleague participant AS Monaco, has already shown in the course of this tournament that it can hold its own against supposedly stronger nations. They suffered a narrow defeat against France by seven points, but celebrated victories against quarterfinalists Slovenia and Israel, who in turn only narrowly lost to co-favorites Greece in their round of 16 match!
Against this backdrop, I recommend betting on the point handicap (+11.5) in favor of the 2022 European Championship fourth-place finisher between Turkey and Poland. With a little courage to take a risk, you can even bet on a Polish lead after the first ten minutes at 2.85 at Interwetten.
Turkey – Poland Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
I’m limiting the head-to-head comparison to the last four encounters, as these all took place in the last three years. The Turks came out on top in three of the four matches. However, these were all friendly matches, which of course do not even begin to reflect the competitive nature and immense significance of Tuesday evening’s game.
All in all, I have come to the conclusion that the H2H does not influence the Turkey vs. Poland betting odds for the upcoming knockout match at all. The cards will be reshuffled in Riga, Latvia, although at least the Turkish fans are likely to have the arena firmly in their grip. However, this also fuels a certain level of expectation…
Turkey – Poland Tip
After six wins in six games so far in the tournament, the Turkish national team has become one of the favorites at Euro Basket 2025. Fans are already dreaming of a possible final against world champions Germany! Alperen Sengün, Shane Larkin, Cedi Osman, and Co. have indeed made a very good impression so far, but the round of 16 match against the clear underdogs from Sweden, which was only narrowly won 85-79, also showed that there are no sure-fire wins on the road to a medal.
Especially not the Poles, who themselves have an impressive 4-2 record, defeated Bosnia in the round of 16, and already prevailed against Slovenia in the preliminary round by ten (!) points. The 2022 European Championship fourth-place finisher has a wealth of experience, a well-functioning team, and good individual players, so I wouldn’t completely rule out a surprise upset. However, to adjust the risk, I’m going with Poland (+11.5).
