Will Pioli’s reunion with his ex turn into a fiasco?
From 2019 to 2024, current Florence coach Stefano Pioli was under contract as coach at AC Milan. There, the former professional enjoyed the most successful period of his career, winning the 2022 championship and being named Coach of the Year in Serie A. On Sunday evening, he will be reunited with his old love. However, a lot has changed at the Rossoneri since his departure in May last year, both in terms of personnel and sporting performance.
In this still young season in particular, the Lombards seem to have regained their old strength under their new coach Massimiliano Allegri. 13 points from the first six league games are certainly impressive and ensure that the odds for a home win are significantly lower for AC Milan than for Fiorentina.
However, it is not only “Il Diavolo” who is responsible for this, but also, to a similar extent, the visitors from Tuscany. Pioli’s team has not yet got into gear. As one of only four teams in the Italian top flight, the European Cup representatives are still waiting for their first win. They have three draws and three defeats to their name. Moise Kean and Co. have also scored a meager four goals in total. In two of their three away games, the AFC offense failed to score at all. For an AC Milan vs. Fiorentina prediction of another goalless draw for “La Viola,” Interwetten offers maximum odds of 2.10.
This is not least due to Milan’s very stable defense, which has kept a clean sheet in four of six league games and has even managed six clean sheets in eight matches across all competitions. Before the international break, Juventus came away with a goalless draw, although the Red and Blacks had an excellent chance to score the lucky punch after an hour in the form of a penalty taken by Christian Pulisic. Pulisic missed and, to make matters worse, will be out for the next few weeks due to injury. With four goals and two assists, the American currently leads the scoring charts in Italy. His absence is therefore extremely painful!
However, even the loss of their top scorer will not prevent Allegri’s team from celebrating their next three points on matchday 7 in Serie A, in my opinion. In contrast to the Viola, the Milanese are in very good shape and can no longer be compared to the team that missed out on international competition last year.
In conjunction with the home advantage, I therefore recommend the odds on a handicap win for the favorites, who are currently only behind Napoli and Roma in the standings, in the match between AC Milan and Fiorentina. Merkur Bets is offering 2.38 for a home win with a margin of at least two goals.
AC Milan – Fiorentina Head-to-head record
AC Milan and AC Florence have met 172 times so far. The Rossoneri are ahead with 78 wins. Fiorentina have celebrated 48 victories and managed 46 draws. However, more relevant than looking at the long history are the recent direct duels, which have always been very close. Nine times in a row, the winning margin in this pairing was a maximum of one goal. Nevertheless, Milan have won six of the last ten encounters, including four of the last five home games. Perhaps this weekend will see another relatively clear victory for the favorites – at least with a handicap of 1.5 goals.
AC Milan – Fiorentina Tip
Similar to Napoli last season, Milan may benefit this season from not being involved in international competition. After a surprising and completely undeserved opening defeat against Cremonese, Allegri’s team has picked up 13 out of a possible 15 points from its last five games, winning at home against the reigning champions from the foot of Vesuvius (2-1) and keeping four clean sheets.
On the other side, the visitors from Tuscany have not been able to get their footing so far. Three points after six matchdays do not even come close to meeting their own expectations. Former Milan coach Stefano Pioli is already under criticism, but now wants to turn things around against his old club of all teams. However, I don’t think that will happen, so ahead of the clash between AC Milan and Fiorentina, I recommend betting on a home win by at least two goals.
