High-scoring first leg in Cyprus?
Already deep into the summer of 2025, the upcoming Europa League season is casting its shadow. Cyprus Cup winners AEK Larnaca will face last season’s Serbian runners-up. It’s a duel that promises to be exciting. The bookmakers see the Cypriots as having the better chances of coming out on top after the first and second legs, and the odds for an AEK Larnaca vs. Partizan Belgrade tip in the first leg also point towards the home side.
The two teams met in the Europa League qualifiers last season, in the third round. The “Kitrinoprasinoi” came out on top at the time, with their home win in the first of the two matches laying the foundation for their progress. Will they be able to repeat this against the Serbs in the upcoming match? In any case, we don’t see such clear quality advantages as the betting providers do in our AEK Larnaca vs. Partizan Belgrade prediction.
AEK Larnaca – Statistics & current form
AEK Larnaca failed to qualify for European competition via the national league last season. However, their cup victory over Heidenheim’s Conference League group opponents this year, FC Paphos, means that Spanish coach Imanol Idiakez’s team will take part in the Europa League qualifiers. There, AEK Larnaka are surprisingly clear favorites against Partizan Belgrade in the first leg.
The national cup victory in the previous season was achieved under Norwegian coach Henning Berg. Idiakez is thus continuing an unwritten tradition in Larnaka, as only three of Larnaka’s last 14 coaches have not come from Spain. In general, the average tenure of coaches at the Kitrinoprasinoi seems to be quite short, with Henning Berg, like many of his predecessors, leaving after just one season.
Will Larnaca prove strong at home again?
After better placings in recent seasons, Larnaca only managed fourth place in the domestic league last season. At home, however, the team from the Cypriot league was once again difficult to beat. They suffered just two defeats in the entire season at the AEK Arena. That’s why Apple Pay sports betting offers very low odds for an AEK Larnaca vs. Partizan Belgrade tip on an unbeaten home game in the first leg of the qualifying round.
However, the Cypriot cup winners did not exactly cover themselves in glory at European level last season. They were knocked out in the second qualifying round of the Europa Conference League by Hungarian no-name club FC Paksi. Whether it will be enough for a victory against Belgrade this time, as it was two years ago, will be seen on Thursday. At the very least, we expect Larnaca not to remain goalless against their opponents’ vulnerable defense, as they did in their embarrassing 0-3 defeat against Paksi last season.
Possible line-up for AEK Larnaca:
Alomerovic – Angel Garcia, Milicevic, Saborit, Ekpolo – Gus Ledes, Pere Pons, Rohdén – Ivanovic, Cabrera, Chacón
Partizan Belgrade – Statistics & current form
For years, the Serbian league has been clearly dominated by the two big Belgrade clubs, Partizan and Red Star. And at European level, too, it is the two teams from the capital that are at least able to hold their own against the strong competition from Europe’s top leagues. However, the “Crno beli” have often been knocked out early in European competition in recent years.
Last season, Dynamo Kiev proved too strong for Partizan in the second round of Champions League qualifying. And even after dropping into the Europa League qualifiers, they were immediately knocked out by Swiss side FC Lugano. Perhaps because of last year’s negative results, the betting providers’ predictions for AEK Larnaca against Partizan Belgrade are extremely pessimistic. Nevertheless, we see potential for a tip on an unbeaten game for the visitors, and with the NEO.bet odds boost, the already high odds for a tip on an unbeaten game for the visitors can be pushed even further.
Will Belgrade surprise Cyprus?
The upcoming opponent is roughly comparable in terms of level to the teams in the top third of the Serbian league. However, Partizan Belgrade performed poorly away from home in the so-called championship group at the end of last season. They lost two and won only one of their three games. In general, the team led by Srdjan Blagojevic, who took over Partizan Belgrade at the beginning of the year, is considered to be somewhat weaker away from home.
The Blagojevic XI’s most recent matches in the Serbian Super Liga have also been high-scoring affairs. The Crno beli have hardly kept a clean sheet, while their own strong offense has always delivered. That’s why we feel confident in our prediction that there will be several goals in the first leg between Larnaca and Belgrade on Thursday.
Possible lineup for Partizan Belgrade:
Milosevic – Jurcevic, Milanovic, Durdevic, Roganovic – Karabelyov, Dragojevic – Vukotic, Ugresic, Trifunovic – Milosevic
AEK Larnaca – Partizan Belgrade Head-to-head record / H2H record
The match against Partizan Belgrade two years ago was AEK Larnaca’s only encounter with a team from Serbia to date. Back then, the “Kitrinoprasinoi” won the first leg 2-1 and advanced to the next round thanks to a 2-2 draw in Belgrade. The “Crno beli” have a little more experience against opponents from Cyprus.
With four wins, two draws and four defeats, the record is evenly balanced. We also expect a balanced encounter and a possible points split on Thursday. We think the betting odds for AEK Larnaca against Partizan Belgrade are a little too high, given that the Cypriot cup winners are the clear favorites.
AEK Larnaca – Partizan Belgrade Tip
Both teams are starting the new European season with a real cold start. Belgrade has not played a competitive game since the end of May, and the same goes for AEK Larnaca. The decisive factor in this duel is likely to be which team can find its competitive rhythm the quickest. In any case, we are not committing ourselves to a winner in our AEK Larnaca vs. Partizan Belgrade tip.
In the previous season, both teams were eliminated early in the European Cup qualifiers. Larnaca is considered very strong at home, but on paper, the Serbian runners-up have the more valuable squad. In any case, we expect a closely contested match on Thursday and do not necessarily agree with the betting providers’ clear favoritism toward the Cypriots.
In their friendly matches, both teams showed themselves to be hungry for goals, but at the same time vulnerable in their own defense. Of course, the results in friendly matches are ultimately meaningless, but they are a small indicator of what kind of game we can expect to see in the European Cup opener.
In any case, we can well imagine that the spectators at the AEK Arena will see a few goals in the first leg of our AEK Larnaca vs. Partizan Belgrade prediction. The bookmakers are rather skeptical here, which is why the odds for a tip on more than 2.5 goals in the game offer interesting value. The same goes for the odds that both teams will score. Both teams have quality up front, but defensively, both teams have their weaknesses.