Will the Kazakhs take the lead in a CL game for the first time?
The cup has its own rules – and so does the premier class. For established clubs, the Champions League is a stage, a yardstick and a source of prestige. For inexperienced clubs like Almaty, Europe’s strongest club competition is one thing above all else: a crash course. The hosts will feel this once again in the Almaty vs. Olympiacos Piraeus tip.
At home, the Kazakh representative has yet to score a Champions League goal in the Almaty vs. Olympiacos Piraeus prediction. In addition to the clear defeat in the duel with Real Madrid (0-5), the “people’s team” missed out on three points against Pafos (0-0) despite playing almost the entire game with a man advantage.
The Greeks’ recent Champions League history is hardly a success story either. The Thrylos have now gone ten games without a win in the premier class (2 draws, 8 losses). Away from home, the Red and Whites have even suffered twelve Champions League defeats in a row.
However, Jose Luis Mendilibar and his team are unsurprisingly the clear favorites in the Almaty vs. Olympiacos Piraeus betting odds.
The best value is offered by the Almaty vs. Olympiacos Piraeus odds, which in our opinion highlight the biggest mismatch. We are talking about the (lack of) offensive power of the Kazakh representative compared to the thoroughly appealing defensive work of Mendilibar’s team.
In the Betano app, you can browse the bookmaker’s offerings just as easily as on the classic web view. Our recommendation: Focus on options that emphasize the number of goals. We are playing the Almaty vs. Olympiacos Piraeus tip “Almaty Under 0.5 Goals” at odds of 2.12.
Almaty vs. Olympiacos Piraeus Prediction AI
Our artificial intelligence processes large amounts of data and calculates the probabilities of various scenarios. Compared to the assessments of the sports betting providers in their betting apps, the Almaty – Olympiacos Piraeus AI prediction recognizes value in “Both teams to score – No.”
Almaty – Statistics & current form
At the national level, Rafael Urazbakhtin and his protégés celebrated their second championship in a row a few weeks ago. Narrowly, but successfully once again, their biggest rival, Astana FC, was relegated to second place in the table with less than three points difference.
However, Champions League soccer has relatively little in common with Kazakh soccer – at least in terms of level. On the international stage, the national team sometimes seems overwhelmed, on both sides of the field.
Almaty has the weakest expected goal difference (-10.3 xGD) of all Champions League participants. In addition to having the second-weakest expected offense (4.4 xG), the home team also has the weakest expected defense in the premier class (14.8 xGA).
No solutions in the final third
The 0-0 home draw against Pafos was indicative of the team’s lack of competitiveness. Joao Correia (Pafos FC) was sent off after just four minutes, giving the Kazakhs the best chance of securing their first Champions League win in the club’s history.
However, clear scoring chances were few and far between, as has been the case in almost all of their appearances at the highest European level so far. On average, no Champions League team this season has scored fewer expected goals per shot than the team from Kazakhstan (0.07 xG/shot).
The fans of the Kazakh champions have not yet had the chance to experience their favorite team taking the lead in the Champions League. Until the Almaty vs. Olympiacos Piraeus tip, the hosts have not played a single second of a game from the front. 51 percent of the playing time was a draw and 49 percent of the playing minutes saw Kairat trailing behind.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Statistics & current form
At the national level, the Greek double winners are once again leading the table after 13 matchdays. Olympiakos has lost only one league game (1-2 vs. PAOK Saloniki), agreed to another point split with Panathinaikos (1-1), and otherwise racked up eleven wins.
In the Champions League, the situation is completely different – at least in terms of the final results. Like their Kazakh counterparts, the Red and Whites are still waiting for their first Champions League win of the current season. Their only points so far have come against Paphos (0-0) and PSV (1-1).
However, they could have had significantly more points if the expected points had served as a basis (6.0 xPTS – 23rd place in comparison). The offensive output has left something to be desired so far (5 goals in 5 Champions League games), but they did manage to score three goals in their 3-4 defeat to Real Madrid.
Reflecting on their strengths
If they are to get their first three points of the current Champions League season in Kazakhstan, their compact defense will serve as the basis. Their team defense and coordination between the individual parts of the team have been much better than the 13 goals conceded would suggest.
Our Almaty vs. Olympiacos Piraeus prediction takes into account, among other things, the clear identity of the Greeks. Jose Luis Mendilibar likes to send his team into well-chosen pressing situations. Despite allowing 12.4 passes per defensive action (an average value), the Greek double winners found 64 pressing triggers that initiated a pressing sequence – the sixth-highest value among all CL teams.
Olympiakos defends quite far away from its own goal (average starting distance when pressing: 44.9 m – a top-eight value). The prepared defensive mechanisms work extremely well – only nine teams have allowed fewer shots on their own goal than Piraeus (22). By way of comparison, Almaty has conceded 44 shots on its own goal (36th).
Almaty – Olympiacos Piraeus Head-to-head record
This is the first meeting between the two teams on the international stage. So far, Kazakh and Greek teams have played four matches on the European stage. The Kazakh clubs have yet to celebrate a win (1D, 3L).
Almaty – Olympiacos Piraeus Tip
Olympiacos should experience an upward trend in the remaining matches of the Champions League group stage. So far, they have already faced three top teams, among others. Piraeus has already played Arsenal (0-2), Barcelona (1-6), and Real Madrid (3-4).
The fact that the expected goals conceded (7.8 xGA) are still enough for a place in the middle of the defensive rankings is all the more impressive. In addition, the opponents’ huge shot conversion rate against Olympiacos (21.31 percent) should decline significantly.
This is likely to start with the away game at Kairat Almaty. The Kazakh representative has conceded the second-highest number of expected goals of all CL participants (10.2 open-play xGA). There has been little progress up front so far. Although Urazbakhtin’s team has had a number of shots (62), these have rarely posed a threat (0.07 xG per shot).
