Who will generate the most scoring chances?
At the national level, the two opponents in our Almaty vs. Pafos tip lead the table. In the Champions League, however, they change their tune and almost always slip into the role of the big underdog. The direct duel on the third matchday offers both clubs one of their few realistic chances of victory.
For the Kazakh representative, three points would be a historic event. Never before has a club from this country won a game in the group/league phase of the Champions League. On the other side of our Almaty vs. Pafos prediction, there could be the first Cypriot CL victory since APOEL Nicosia (2011 vs. Porto).
However, there is another option in a three-way bet. A draw is not significantly less likely than a win for either team when comparing the Almaty – Pafos odds. Interesting side note: Kairat ended the first two direct duels against a team from Cyprus with a goalless draw in each case.
A low-scoring encounter is very likely in the eyes of betting providers with a German license. Together, both clubs have only scored two goals in a combined four Champions League matches this season. A combination bet is needed to create a soccer bet with value.
We tend to give the visitors a slight advantage, although the exhausting trip to Kazakhstan should not be ignored in your Almaty vs. Pafos prediction. At least Juan Carlos Carcedo’s team has already proven on the first matchday that it can score points at the CL level (0-0 vs. Olympiakos).
Halyq komandasy have yet to earn a point in the current league phase. Instead, Kairat lost their first two games by at least three goals each. Our recommendation is Almaty – Paphos betting odds of 1.77 for “Double Chance X2 & Under 3.5 Goals.”
Almaty vs. Pafos Prediction AI
We are not the only ones who find it difficult to pick a favorite in the Almaty vs. Pafos tip. Based on its analysis, the AI determines a “draw” as the most likely scenario in a three-way bet. If you bet on a result without a winner, you are playing a value bet according to the artificial intelligence’s calculations.
Almaty – Statistics & current form
The national competition is already coming to an end in Kazakhstan. As in the previous season, Kairat has the best chances of winning the championship title. One final round of matches remains in the schedule. As things stand, Rafael Urazbakhtin’s side leads FC Astana by two points.
The top match against their fiercest rivals is scheduled for the final matchday. An all-or-nothing game on the weekend after one of the best opportunities for a first victory in the premier class – there could have been better times.
Following their 5-0 home defeat to Real Madrid on the second matchday of the Champions League, the Kazakh representatives have played two games at national level – and won both. Schetissu (5-0) and Kyzylzhar (1-0) were both beaten without conceding a goal.
Hardly any goal threat
It is difficult to predict how strongly the home side will be tested on the third matchday of the Champions League. So far, Kairat has been completely overwhelmed in the Champions League. After a 1-4 defeat to Sporting Lisbon, Almaty went down 0-5 to Real Madrid.
At least in these two matches, only 63.41 percent of the opponents’ shots were allowed within their own penalty area. However, like their next opponents from Cyprus, Kairat Almaty themselves had hardly any sequences in the opponent’s half, let alone near the goal.
The hosts scored only one goal in total, earned only 1.15 expected goals (34th minute) and, together with Pafos, collected the fewest expected goals per shot taken (0.06). Spectators at Almaty’s Ortalyq Stadium should prepare themselves for an uneventful match, which will also affect the Almaty vs. Pafos odds.
Pafos – Statistics & current form
In Cyprus, the national competition runs parallel to the top European leagues. After seven rounds, Pafos leads the Cypriot top flight with 18 points ahead of Omonia Nicosia. All three away games in the national competition have been won so far, with two of the three away games even ending without conceding a goal.
Juan Carlos Carcedo’s team also prevented a goal on the first matchday of the Champions League (0-0 vs. Olympiacos). The defense has already been the best element of the light brigade during the three qualifying rounds. Pafos finished three of the six qualifying matches without conceding a goal.
The Cypriots have certainly measured themselves against some big names. First, they eliminated Maccabi Tel Aviv (1-1, 1-0), then overcame Dynamo Kiev (1-0, 2-0) and finally defeated Red Star Belgrade (2-1, 1-1). As a result, Carcedo’s team did not concede more than one goal in any of their Champions League qualifying matches.
The basics are right
Pafos already gained some experience against a Kazakh representative during the preseason. The Cypriots faced Astana in the Conference League. The current second-placed team in the Kazakh league was narrowly but deservedly defeated 1-0.
Their defensive skills were already evident in last season’s European campaign. Pafos reached the round of 16 in the Conference League last season and conceded less than one goal in seven out of ten European matches.
Even then, the current head coach was on the sidelines, regularly providing his team with the appropriate match plans, which above all enabled a certain stability in defense. The visitors are behaving similarly this season. Pafos plays in a 4-2-3-1 formation and has finished four of its seven previous matches without conceding a goal.
Almaty – Pafos Head-to-head record
There has never been a direct duel between the two clubs before. However, the previous encounters between the two clubs against teams from the other country have all been low-scoring affairs with a maximum of one goal.
Almaty – Pafos Tip
Based on the Almaty vs. Pafos betting odds, we should not expect top-class football, as in some other matches on the third matchday of the Champions League. However, this does not make the match any less significant. Both clubs have a rare opportunity to win in the Champions League.
Neither team has made a lasting impression in attack. We have identified certain strengths in the defense of the reigning Cypriot champions, who we consider to be slight favorites.
In any case, we are leaning towards a low-scoring game that will likely be decided by a single goal. However, we do not expect high-quality scoring chances from the two teams with the lowest expected goals per shot (0.06).
