It’s all or nothing for Venezuela in Buenos Aires!
With two matchdays remaining in the South American World Cup qualifiers, many decisions have already been made. Among others, Argentina and Brazil have secured their tickets to next year’s finals in the USA, Canada, and Mexico.
Against this backdrop, it must be taken into account for the Argentina vs. Venezuela prediction that this is a completely meaningless match for the home side, while the visitors from northern South America need every point in their long-distance duel with Bolivia to keep their hopes of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup alive.
Nevertheless, Germany’s most popular bookmakers are venturing a prediction on the 2022 World Cup winner ahead of the Argentina vs. Venezuela match. This assessment is also supported by statistics. The Gauchos not only lead the CONMEBOL standings with eleven wins from 16 games and a ten-point lead over the second-placed team, but have also won six of their eight home games so far. On average, Lionel Messi and his teammates have scored more than two goals per game.
In comparison, the Venezuelans are still waiting for their first three points after eight away games. They have two points and six defeats. The goal difference of 6:17 speaks for itself. Only Bolivia has conceded more goals in away games than “La Vinotinto,” with Venezuela currently occupying seventh place in the rankings. They are one point ahead of Bolivia, who, given their remaining fixtures against Colombia and Brazil, have their backs against the wall and must win two more points than the Venezuelan team.
Despite the fact that motivation should actually swing the pendulum in favor of the 46th-ranked team in the world, I am firmly convinced that the world champions will want to flex their muscles once again in their last home qualifying game. However, it cannot be ruled out that coach Lionel Scaloni will start rotating his squad.
Although most of the stars are on board, there are indications that many youngsters will be given the chance to prove themselves in the light blue and white jersey. Regardless, the Argentina vs. Venezuela odds leave no questions unanswered, so I am very open to a handicap bet (-1.5).
Argentina – Venezuela Head-to-head record / H2H balance
The Venezuelans will have fond memories of the first leg. Playing at home, the underdogs managed to hold the overwhelming favorites to a 1-1 draw. Nicolas Otamendi’s lead was equalized by Solomon Rondon, who made the difference, to make it the final score. In the 17th qualifying match between these two teams, it was only the fourth point Venezuela had earned, having lost seven of their eight trips to Argentina and conceded a total of 24 (!) goals. In six of the seven victories mentioned, a bet on a Gaucho triumph by at least two goals would have paid off.
Argentina – Venezuela Tip
The Venezuelan national team is the only team from the CONMEBOL zone that has never qualified for a World Cup. Accordingly, there is great anticipation, but also tension, ahead of the last two qualifying games for the 2026 finals in North America.
The primary goal of Argentine head coach Facundo Batista’s team is to defend seventh place and thus qualify for the intercontinental playoffs. Bolivia is lurking just behind with one point less. Incidentally, with two wins, in Argentina and at home against Colombia, “La Vinotinto” could even secure a direct ticket.
Nevertheless, I think it is very unlikely that the world champions – despite possible personnel changes – will let themselves be beaten in their last qualifying home game at the Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires. This is supported not least by the underdog’s miserable away record (0-2-6) and the head-to-head record, which in most cases predicted clear home wins for the Albiceleste. I am therefore foregoing the Argentina vs. Venezuela betting odds on a surprise coup and instead advocating a handicap tip (-1.5) in favor of the world champions, who have Lionel Messi in their squad and could play him in this match, which is meaningless for coach Scaloni.
