Will the Werkself pull off an upset in London?

Bayer 04 Leverkusen came very close a week ago in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 to defeating the top title contender 1-0 in front of their home crowd. However, a controversial penalty shortly before the end, which former B04 pro Kai Havertz confidently converted, still gave Arsenal FC a 1-1 draw, significantly altering the starting point for Tuesday night’s second leg.

While a brilliant upset by the Werkself had to be seriously considered beforehand, everything now points to there being virtually no alternative but to bet on the Londoners advancing over Arsenal and Leverkusen.

The most interesting question, however, will be whether coach Kasper Hjulmand’s underdogs can once again make life as difficult for the Premier League leaders as they did a week ago at the BayArena. Defensively, in particular, the Rhinelanders conceded almost nothing, confirming the impressive trend from their previous Champions League matches.

The 2024 German double winners have conceded just one goal in their last four Champions League matches. For the first time ever, they are now on the verge of five consecutive Champions League matches without conceding a goal from open play. Nevertheless, ahead of the second clash between Arsenal and Leverkusen, a prediction of a clean sheet for the visitors plays no role at all in my considerations. The general approach of betting on under goals, however, comes with some compelling arguments.

All in all, I think it’s a good idea to combine the Gunners’ expected home win with a maximum number of goals scored during the match. However, it’s also conceivable to bet on a handicap win for the English side in the Arsenal vs. Leverkusen match.

Arsenal vs. Leverkusen AI Prediction

Artificial intelligence calculates that 15 out of 16 clubs set to play in Europe’s premier club competition on Tuesday and Wednesday have an xG value of at least 0.97. The only exception is Bayer 04 Leverkusen (xG: 0.65). In contrast, Arteta’s side has an xG of 2.07 and a win probability of over 71 percent.

Arsenal – Stats & Current Form

Arsenal FC faces a tough but crucial week. It kicked off this past weekend when they managed to defeat Everton 2-0 at home after a hard-fought match thanks to two late goals. Since Manchester City could not manage more than a 1-1 draw against London rivals West Ham, the Gunners have extended their lead over Guardiola’s side in the Premier League to nine (!) points. Their first league title in over 20 years is within reach!

Speaking of Manchester City: The Citizens will face Arsenal Football Club this coming Sunday at Wembley Stadium in the EFL Cup final, where manager Mikel Arteta’s squad is eager to lift their first trophy of the season.

Arsenal aims to step on the gas early at home!

Their clear status as favorites can be explained in many ways. In addition to the fact that the Londoners won all eight matches in the league phase and even dominated proceedings at will with the most dangerous offense (23 goals) and the most solid defense (four goals conceded), their home form is particularly worth mentioning. The Gunners have recently won 13 of 16 Champions League home games under their successful Spanish coach. Their only defeat came in last season’s semifinal, a 0-1 home loss to the eventual champions from Paris—incidentally, PSG was also the only team to keep a clean sheet at the Emirates Stadium during the period under review.

I am therefore convinced that the English side will show a different side at home than they did a week ago at the BayArena. More dominance, more power in their attacking play, and a higher level of concentration on offensive (as well as defensive) set pieces should ultimately be enough to secure a commanding victory.

Leverkusen – Stats & Current Form

Do you know when Bayer 04 Leverkusen last made it to the Champions League quarterfinals? No, not during the brief era under Xabi Alonso, but in 2001/02, when the Werkself sensationally reached the final against Real Madrid. This would be only the third time the Rhinelanders have made it into the top eight clubs in Europe. However, that will require a perfect day on Wednesday in London.

Leverkusen’s offense is causing more headaches than the defense

The only problem is that Leverkusen have won just one of their last seven competitive matches and, during this period since mid-February, have scored more than one goal in 90 minutes only once. The offense has been significantly less threatening since the winter break than it was a year ago. In the Bundesliga, the average xG has nearly halved, and the number of clear-cut chances has decreased by a similar percentage. Even with a one-man advantage—and later a two-man advantage—against Bayern over the weekend, they managed only one goal in total. That’s one of the reasons why my Arsenal vs. Leverkusen prediction is for a “clean sheet” victory for the hosts!

In terms of approach, Coach Kasper Hjulmand—who, by the way, has lost only one of his team’s five away Champions League matches so far—will very likely opt for a low-risk strategy again. On the one hand, the Danish head coach wants many ball-secure players on the field to counter the opponent’s high pressing; on the other hand, he also wants fast players on the pitch. However, combining these profiles likely lacks the necessary physicality to hold their own in London. No matter how Hjulmand ultimately decides: The ball is in Arsenal’s court, and the Gunners will determine the outcome of the second leg at the Emirates Stadium with their performance.

Arsenal – Leverkusen Head-to-Head Record

Last Wednesday’s first leg marked the third-ever meeting between these clubs in European competition. With two draws and one win—in 2002 at the venerable Highbury Stadium—Arsenal Football Club remains undefeated against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. To make matters worse for the Rhinelanders, they have lost eight of their eleven total Champions League away games in England. Against this backdrop, the 1-1 draw a week ago was likely not enough to seriously and sustainably put the heavy title favorites in trouble.

Arsenal – Leverkusen Prediction

When Arsenal FC has not lost the first leg of a European knockout round away from home, the Londoners have ultimately advanced to the next round in 17 out of 20 cases. Everything points to that record improving once again on Tuesday evening.

The undisputed Premier League leaders, who have a very real chance of winning silverware in all four competitions, go into their home match against Bayer 04 Leverkusen as clear favorites and will be looking to put in a better performance than they did a week ago in Germany. Arteta’s side has won 13 of their last 16 Champions League home games; and the Gunners have also remained unbeaten in a total of eight league matches!

Although Leverkusen proved in the first leg that they can be a tough opponent thanks to their solid defense, it would still be a huge upset if the Werkself were to upset the Londoners at the Emirates Stadium as well.