Will the Reds remain harmless in the first half?
The Reds will not defend their title this season, regardless of whether they emerge victorious from the Arsenal vs. Liverpool tip or not. The gap to the league leaders from London (14 points) has already become too big, and their results so far this season have been too weak.
Somehow, the trend for Arne Slot and his team is currently pointing in the right direction, but somehow it isn’t. After nine consecutive unbeaten competitive games, the fourth-placed team is the clear underdog in our Arsenal vs. Liverpool prediction.
The attacking play has often seemed sluggish this season, and the defense has been unsettled. A temporary slump in form with nine defeats in twelve competitive games prompted Slot to make the team a little more defensive. This has been partially successful: most recently, the Reds conceded a maximum of 1.1 expected goals in four consecutive PL matches.
The situation is different for the Londoners. For the first time since the 2022/23 season, the Gunners are starting matchday 21 at the top of the table. They are even quite comfortable there, with a six-point lead over their direct rivals.
Only in very few cases does Mikel Arteta’s team look beatable in their PL home games. The league leaders have won seven consecutive league games at the Emirates Stadium ahead of this top match. On average, Arsenal have conceded only 0.5 goals per home game this season.
Arsenal – Liverpool Head-to-head record / H2H record
We dug a little into the history books for this matchup. Arsenal have lost more PL games to Liverpool than to any other English club (26, the same as against Manchester United). One of those defeats came on matchday three this season (0-1).
The Gunners have an extremely positive record at home. Arsenal have gone unbeaten in 21 of their last 25 PL home games against the Reds (11W, 10D). Based on the form of both teams, we can also predict a scenario for the next match in which the home side avoids defeat.
Arsenal – Liverpool Tip
Liverpool will be in danger right from the start of the game. The Reds rarely create scoring chances in the first 45 minutes of a match. In their match against Fulham, the Reds did not have a single shot on goal before the half-time whistle and failed to score in the first half for the 13th time this Premier League season.
15 teams have scored more goals in the first half this season than Liverpool (9). These teams include the Gunners (14 – 4th place in the league comparison). After the break, Slot’s team scored the second-most goals (23). This figure is surpassed only by Arsenal (26).
We see only a small chance for the visitors to pick up points at the Emirates Stadium. Liverpool will be without Mohamed Salah (Africa Cup of Nations) and Alexander Isak (broken leg), among others. This means that the visitors are already missing two important players for their offensive play.
The fourth-placed team is nowhere near as dangerous as it was last season, and set pieces are also a huge problem. Liverpool have only scored 4.7 expected goals from set pieces (18th) and have already conceded 13 goals from set pieces (joint highest). Every soccer fan is now aware of the Gunners’ strength from free kicks and corners.
