Will the Citizens fail again against the Gunners?
The Gunners (2-0 vs. Athletic Bilbao) and the Citizens (2-0 vs. Napoli) both got off to a winning start in the Champions League this week. There has been little time to prepare for the Arsenal vs. Manchester City tip, and the tension ahead of this clash in the English top flight is palpable.
The hosts suffered their only defeat in the top-of-the-table clash against Liverpool (0-1). Together, the two top teams in this pairing have scored only 1.0 expected goals (0.5:0.5 xG) – a small preview of our Arsenal vs. Manchester City prediction.
Mikel Arteta’s team is ideally positioned to finish the match without conceding a goal. Following their 1-0 win against Manchester United on the first matchday, the North Londoners have conceded less than one expected goal (0.9 xGA) in their three subsequent Premier League matches.
Arsenal have won four of their five competitive games this season without conceding a goal – their only defeat, as already mentioned, coming against the defending champions without scoring themselves (0-1). The distribution of the Arsenal vs. Manchester City betting odds tends to favor another win for the hosts.
Top matches are an ideal place to place a no deposit bet, and the Arsenal vs. Manchester City odds are no exception. Pep Guardiola and his protégés have already suffered two defeats (0-2 vs. Tottenham, 1-2 vs. Brighton). The Skyblues won the remaining three matches without conceding a goal.
We expect both teams to play a very focused game, with control of the game being the top priority. Following this line of thinking, our recommendation is to bet on “Under 2.5 goals,” which will earn you 2.00 times your stake in the Bwin app.
Arsenal – Manchester City Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Mikel Arteta seems to have come up with a winning formula for defeating the Citizens. The Gunners have gone five games without defeat against the Skyblues, four of which were in the Premier League. The North Londoners won both of their previous encounters with the Citizens at their home ground, the Emirates Stadium, conceding only one goal in total.
The home side have not conceded a goal in open play in the Premier League so far this season. Only Fulham have managed that feat. In addition, the Gunners have conceded just three goals in their four previous meetings with the Citizens and kept a clean sheet in two of those games.
Arsenal – Manchester City Tip
The discipline with which Arsenal defend under Mikel Arteta is phenomenal. The second-placed team in the league has conceded the fewest expected goals per opponent shot (0.06) and thus hardly given away any promising scoring opportunities.
Arteta’s team has also defended set pieces with maximum seriousness and, after Newcastle (0.21 xGA), has conceded the fewest expected goals from these situations (0.42 xGA). Up front, however, they occasionally lack the spark to create chances from open play.
Arsenal (5.72 xG without penalties) has scored almost three fewer expected goals than the Citizens (8.47 xG without penalties). The North Londoners rarely take risks in their play, which is why Pep Guardiola’s team is hardly able to take advantage of their tight counter-pressing (7 shots after winning the ball high up the pitch – second in the league).
We therefore expect a similar game to Liverpool vs. Arsenal – i.e., a match with few chances and a maximum of two goals. However, these could well be evenly distributed between both sides.
