Will Arteta lay the foundation for the CL final with Arsenal?

Four teams currently still have a chance to win the trophy at the Allianz Arena in Munich on May 31. But before Flick’s team face Bayern conquerors Inter Milan on Wednesday evening, the focus is first on the Gunners’ clash with Paris St. Germain. The French side are looking to eliminate a third English club in a row in the knockout stages of Europe’s premier competition, after Liverpool and Aston Villa.

The performances against the two Premier League clubs, especially in the first legs, are also the main reason why coach Luis Enrique’s team is considered to have slightly better chances of reaching the final ahead of Tuesday evening’s first leg. However, given the odds between Arsenal and PSG, the fact that betting providers with Paysafecard are venturing a very cautious prediction on the Red and Blues’ progress should be viewed critically, as the French serial champions have never won against the Londoners in five attempts in their own European Cup history.

However, coach Mikel Arteta’s protégés need not belittle themselves in the run-up to this eagerly awaited semi-final. After all, the PL runners-up ushered in the twilight of the Royals in the quarter-finals and are the benchmark in several categories in the current Champions League season.

Arsenal vs. PSG prediction AI

For a long time, Arsenal was the top pick of artificial intelligence when it came to predicting the 2024/25 Champions League winner.

For Arsenal’s first leg against PSG, however, the AI prediction still favors the English side, albeit only by a narrow margin. In terms of xG values, Arteta’s team has the edge with 1.27 to 1.11. The total is therefore under 2.5 goals, meaning that artificial intelligence also expects a rather low-scoring match on the Thames.

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

For the third time in its history and for the first time since 2009, Arsenal Football Club has reached the semi-finals of the Champions League. However, the Londoners have yet to win a title in the most important club competition. That should change at the end of May in Munich, at best. Before that, however, they have to overcome a brutally high hurdle in the form of Paris St. Germain. The first leg in front of their own fans on Tuesday evening will logically be decisive in this regard.

However, coach Mikel Arteta’s team has been impressive at the Emirates Stadium for a year and a half. The Gunners are unbeaten at home since the start of the 2023/24 Champions League season. They have won nine and drawn two of their eleven games. Nine clean sheets round off an impressive record.

In the current season, the English side has five wins, one draw, and five (!) clean sheets in a total of six Champions League home games. Real Madrid was crushed 3-0 in London, while Paris also lost 2-0 in the league phase in the English capital. The odds for a home win are therefore also interesting for Arsenal’s first leg against PSG.

Arsenal in good form & fully focused on the Champions League semi-final first leg

Statistically speaking, there are further arguments that suggest the pendulum is swinging in favor of the English side in the first semi-final. For example, no other team in the competition has been in the lead for longer than Arteta’s team. The Gunners led for 53% of the total playing time; in fact, the current Premier League runners-up only trailed behind in 6% of the total playing time in twelve games.

Apart from that, Arsenal FC is now unbeaten in twelve competitive games and has suffered just seven defeats in all 52 games played across all competitions. Fatigue will also play a minimal role on Tuesday evening, as the Gunners last played in the Premier League exactly a week ago against Crystal Palace, giving them even more time to recover and prepare than their opponents, who were still in action in Ligue 1 on Friday evening.

In terms of personnel, however, the absence of Thomas Partey weighs quite heavily. The central midfielder is suspended after picking up a yellow card and leaves a big gap in Arteta’s 4-3-3 system, which will probably be filled by Mikel Merino. The Spaniard has recently been helping out more as the lone striker, but could now hand that spot to the clinical Leandro Trossard. Although the Londoners are missing a clear goal scorer, their offense is very difficult to predict and extremely flexible with 13 (!) different goal scorers in this CL season. Above all, wingers Martinelli and Saka can make the difference in every phase of the game. Bet365 offers attractive Arsenal vs. PSG odds on goal scorer tips.

PSG – Statistics & current form

For many, Paris St. Germain is probably the surprise team among the last four in the most important club competition at UEFA level. Not necessarily because the French side is significantly worse than its competitors in terms of quality, but primarily due to the fact that the French league champions had to fight for a place in the playoffs until the last matchday of the league phase. Had they not won their last match in Stuttgart 4-1, their Champions League adventure would have been over at the end of January.

However, following a very inconsistent preliminary round, coach Luis Enrique’s team flexed their muscles, showing league rivals Stade Brest their limits with a 10-0 aggregate victory over two legs, before going on to defeat title favorites Liverpool. Although it took a penalty shootout and a brilliant performance from Donnarumma to secure their place in the quarter-finals against the newly crowned English champions, the Parisians significantly raised their own bar with their performances in 210 minutes of play. It was therefore something of a surprise that the French side had to fight for their place in the quarter-finals after winning the first leg 3-1 against Aston Villa in Birmingham.

Nevertheless, that very match at Villa Park showed that even the French side, who are in such good form, have weaknesses and tend to falter from time to time, especially away from home. Combined with the fact that the red and blue team, which is accustomed to success at the national level, clinched the championship just under two weeks ago and is also in the cup final, has lost five of its last six European Cup games in England, I don’t believe that the betting odds for an away win between Arsenal and PSG on Tuesday evening will pay off.

How will PSG cope with Arsenal’s physicality?

However, Enrique’s team can undoubtedly be expected to score at least one goal on the Thames. On the one hand, because Paris has scored in 11 of 14 CL games this season and has only failed to score in the calendar year 2025 in the completely undeserved 0-1 home defeat against Liverpool. On the other hand, this is also due to the individually high-caliber offense led by Ousmane Dembele. The former Dortmund player has seven goals and three assists in this Champions League season and is excellently supported by Kvaratskhelia and Doué.

However, the team’s showpiece is its midfield trio, which primarily excels in terms of skill, technique, and game intelligence. Ruiz, Vitinha, and Joao Neves will therefore face new challenges against the physicality of Rice and Merino. The result? It’s anyone’s guess! The fact is that Luis Enrique’s approach is not to sit back in his own half and defend a good result. Instead, there is hardly a better pressing machine on this continent than the one in Paris. I therefore expect another high press, aggressive ball chasing and numerous early ball wins.

At the same time, this courageous style naturally also creates space for the opponent, which the Gunners know how to exploit very well, as we saw against Real Madrid. As a result, my Arsenal vs. PSG prediction is for over 2.5 goals or at least one goal in both halves. The latter bet comes with odds of 1.75 in the Betano app.

Arsenal – PSG Head-to-head record / H2H record

Paris St. Germain has played no other club in Europe as often without winning a single game. There have been a total of five meetings between these clubs, with the Gunners leading the head-to-head with two wins and three draws. However, only the most recent direct duel is relevant for the upcoming match. On October 1, Arsenal deservedly won 2-0 at home against Paris St. Germain. Havertz and Saka, who are still injured, scored before the break. The Londoners have now won three consecutive European matches against French teams, scoring 11 goals in the process.

Arsenal – PSG Tip

After Liverpool and Aston Villa, Paris St. Germain now faces its third English team in a row in the Champions League. The French side has emerged as the top favorite to win the title thanks to its strong performances, but now faces a similarly strong opponent that knocked Real Madrid out of the competition in the quarterfinals. Arteta’s team looks very solid, mature and incredibly stable. In terms of experience and balance, I therefore see the Londoners as slightly ahead at the moment. In the run-up to the first leg, I would therefore bet on the Gunners progressing.

For the first meeting between Arsenal and PSG on Tuesday evening, however, my prediction is that both teams will score at least one goal. The Red and Blues will attack early and press aggressively in the English capital. I believe the Premier League runners-up will find good solutions, but at the same time I am convinced that Dembele and Co. have enough quality and confidence to get on the scoreboard.