Will the Rossoneri prevail in the Eternal City?
In the first half of the season, the battle for the Scudetto was even more exciting. For several matchdays, less than three points separated the top six teams. In the meantime, however, the table has become somewhat more balanced. Inter Milan leads the way with a three-point advantage over city rivals AC Milan. But: In Serie A, the capital club has won only one of its last twelve games against the Rossoneri (four draws, seven defeats).
Overall, AC Milan is the only club in Italy’s top flight to have not lost a single away game in the 2025/26 season (six wins, four draws), which is why we are leaning towards the visitors from Lombardy. Nevertheless, Roma have a big bargaining chip to throw into the mix: With only twelve goals conceded in 21 league games, the Giallorossi have the best defense in Serie A, ahead of AC Milan, who have conceded only 16 goals. Against this backdrop, we find the greatest value in this top-of-the-table clash between fourth and second in the table in betting on under 2.5 goals.
At their home stadium, the Stadio Olimpico, where the Wolves recorded a slightly flattering 2-0 victory over VfB Stuttgart in the Europa League group stage during the week thanks to maximum efficiency and defensive compactness, the Giallorossi have conceded only five goals in ten Serie A home games. However, Gian Piero Gasperini’s team has already lost three of those ten home games. All three were against Torino FC, Inter Milan, and Napoli, all by a score of 0-1.
AS Roma – AC Milan Head-to-head record
Head to head: 54 – 63 – 86
A total of 203 competitive games have already been played between the two teams, with AC Milan leading the head-to-head record with 86 wins.
The Rossoneri also won the first leg 1–0 on November 2, 2025, and have lost only one of their last twelve Serie A games against AS Roma (seven wins, four draws). However, that one defeat came in their last away game at the Stadio Olimpico (1–3).
AS Roma – AC Milan Tip
All in all, our prediction for AS Roma vs. AC Milan tends to favor the visitors from Lombardy, who are unbeaten in ten Serie A away games in the 2025/26 season (six wins, four draws) and have lost only one of their last twelve league games against the capital club (seven wins, four draws). Nevertheless, a point or a home win for the Giallorossi would not come completely out of the blue. While “Il Diavolo” has struggled to score goals at times, the Wolves have the best defense in the top flight of Italian soccer, conceding only twelve goals in 21 league games.
The Rossoneri are also very strong defensively, as evidenced by the fact that they have conceded only 16 goals in 21 Serie A games in the 2025/26 season. It is therefore quite likely that this top-of-the-table clash will be decided by a single goal, which is why we find the best value in betting on under 2.5 goals being scored.
