Another setback for the Giallorossi?
Last Thursday’s first leg of the Italian Europa League Round of 16 ended in a 1-1 draw, postponing the decision on who will advance to the quarterfinals and potentially face top favorite Aston Villa there. Anything still seems possible, as the match between AS Roma and Bologna requires bettors to consider that the Veltri (the Greyhounds) have won two of their last three away games against the Giallorossi (one loss).
Moreover, the Emiliani are the fourth-best away team in Serie A and are now visiting a club that has gone four competitive matches without a win (two draws, two losses) and lost 1-2 to Como 1907 in Sunday’s dress rehearsal.
Bologna, on the other hand, had a successful dress rehearsal, winning 1-0 away at Sassuolo—a result that is certainly within the realm of possibility in the Eternal City as well. Both teams traditionally concede very few goals, though this has usually come at the expense of offensive firepower. With just nine goals conceded in 14 Serie A home games, the Wolves actually boast the best defense in the entire Serie A. Precisely because anything is possible in this three-way system, we recommend betting that a maximum of two goals will be scored in the second leg.
We also consider the risk that the match at the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday evening will not be over after 90 minutes to be remarkably high. Not only have the Giallorossi drawn their last two Europa League matches in a row, but the Emiliani—who have gone ten consecutive international competitive matches without a loss—have also drawn 40 percent of their matches during that period (six wins, four draws). Should it even come down to a penalty shootout, a live bet on the Veltri could pay off all the more, as AS Roma has lost four of their last five penalty shootouts in UEFA competitions.
AS Roma – Bologna Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 58 – 51 – 56
A total of 165 matches have taken place between the two teams so far, and with 58 wins, AS Roma still leads the head-to-head record by the narrowest of margins.
The Wolves recorded a 1-0 home win against Bologna FC on Matchday 1 of Serie A, after previously losing two consecutive home games against the Emilian side. That 1-0 victory, however, was the Giallorossi’s only win in their last seven encounters with the Veltri (three draws, three losses).
AS Roma – Bologna Prediction
There are valid arguments to be made for both teams. On the one hand, the Giallorossi have the best home defense in Serie A, having conceded only nine goals in 14 matches; on the other hand, they have gone four competitive matches without a win (two draws, two losses).
The Veltri, on the other hand, haven’t lost any of their last ten international competitive matches (six wins, four draws), sit in fourth place in the Serie A away table, and have won two of their last three away matches against the Wolves (one loss); conversely, however, they bring significantly less international experience to the table, which could prove decisive in a close match. This makes it incredibly difficult to predict who will secure a spot in the quarterfinals in the AS Roma vs. Bologna match.
We expect both teams, which are generally more defensively minded, to be very careful not to make the first mistake, which in a close match could potentially decide the outcome immediately. This points to a low-scoring, tactical match with a high likelihood of extra time. We therefore recommend betting on under 2.5 goals.
