Will the Villans lose their CL spot?

In the battle for European spots, Aston Villa and Chelsea FC face each other at Villa Park in Birmingham. The Villans have won only one of their last six competitive games and are now in fourth place with 51 points – level on points with the Red Devils in third. The Blues, on the other hand, have lost only three of their last 13 competitive games – all three defeats were against Arsenal (!) – and are currently in sixth place with 45 points.

The hosts’ competitive games have recently proved to be very low-scoring – in their last ten competitive games, only two have seen more than three goals scored. In our Aston Villa vs. Chelsea tip, we are therefore again betting on under 2.5 goals in the game.

Aston Villa won the first leg at Stamford Bridge 2-1 and now have the chance to win both league games against Chelsea for the first time since 1989/90. In addition, the Villans have won the last two Premier League matches against the Blues – their last three consecutive league wins against Chelsea came between 1978 and 1984 (four in a row).

However, their current form shows a clear dip. Villa have won only two of their last eight Premier League games (three draws, three defeats), scoring just five goals, an average of 0.6 per game. Previously, the team had won 13 of their previous 15 league games (two defeats) with 2.1 goals per game. Things are not going well at home either: only one win from the last four home games (one draw, two defeats), after previously winning eight home games in a row.

Chelsea are winless in their last two Premier League away games at Villa Park (one draw, one defeat), having previously won five of their last six away games there. Their last two consecutive defeats at Aston Villa came in the 2002/03 and 2003/04 seasons under Claudio Ranieri.

The record in midweek games is particularly problematic: eight of the last ten Premier League away games on a Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday have been lost (two wins), including both games in the current 2025/26 season – 1-3 at Leeds in December and 1-2 at Fulham in January. Offensively, Joao Pedro is a key player against Villa: In five Premier League appearances against the Villans, he has been directly involved in five goals (two goals, three assists) – he has a higher direct goal involvement against no other team.

Aston Villa – Chelsea Head-to-head record / H2H record

The head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Chelsea covers 168 competitive matches. Chelsea leads the overall record with 68 wins, while Aston Villa has 63 wins; 37 matches ended in a draw. The Blues also lead in terms of goal difference: 262 goals scored compared to 237 conceded.

Aston Villa – Chelsea Tip

For the Aston Villa vs. Chelsea match, the betting odds are only slightly in favor of the visitors from London.

The Blues have lost only three of their last twelve away games at Villa Park – but they have lost their last two PL matches in a row. On top of that, they have a weakness for midweek games – eight of their last ten Premier League away games have been lost.

Villa are currently in poor form, having won only one of their last six competitive games. They have also won only one of their last four home games and only two of their last eight Premier League games.