Will the unrest in Newcastle cause a false start?
On Saturday, 16.08.2025, Aston Villa and Newcastle United will face each other in the English top flight. After the opening game between Liverpool FC and AFC Bournemouth (Friday, 9:00 p.m.), we can look forward to another top match. Both teams finished the previous season with 66 points and fought for a place in the Champions League.
In the end, however, the Villans came up short and missed out on the Champions League due to their inferior goal difference. So the hosts have a score to settle here. The bookmakers also consider this realistic, which is why the odds for an Aston Villa vs. Newcastle tip favor a home win. But how likely is a home win really?
We will answer this question in our Aston Villa vs. Newcastle prediction and first take a look at the home and away records of both teams. It quickly becomes clear why the bookmakers favor the hosts. The Villans are extremely strong at home and lost only one league home game last season (vs. Arsenal).
In the remaining 18 home games, Unai Emery’s team picked up 40 points, making them one of the best teams in the Premier League. The Magpies cannot claim the same away from home, as their haul of “only” 28 points from 19 away games (8W, 4D, 7L – 28:27 goals) was rather mixed.
On top of that, the visitors’ preparations have been disastrous. Eddie Howe’s team lost four of their six games and failed to win a single match. Even against Celtic (0-4), the K-League Allstars (0-1) and Espanyol Barcelona (2-2), three supposedly easy opponents, the Magpies fell well short of their own expectations.
For us, this is one of the reasons why the Aston Villa vs. Newcastle odds for a home win remain highly interesting. In addition, the Villans’ summer break was much more promising, with wins against Villarreal (2-0), St. Louis (2-1) and AS Roma (4-0). Nevertheless, not everything went perfectly, as the 1-3 defeat against Olympique Marseille showed.
Aston Villa – Newcastle Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
In the first three paragraphs of our analysis, there is a lot to suggest a victory for the Villans. However, the H2H comparison changes this a little, as 76 of the 175 encounters (43.3%) went to the Magpies and “only” 59 games (33.7%) to the home side. In addition, Emery’s team lost three of their last four encounters, conceding twelve goals in the process.
This is probably also the reason why the Aston Villa vs. Newcastle betting odds are relatively even and do not point more clearly to a home win. However, the hosts won the last meeting at Villa Park 4-1. Due to the unrest surrounding the visitors, we do not expect an away win.
Aston Villa – Newcastle Tip
To conclude our match prediction, we recommend betting on Aston Villa to win at least one of the two halves. In our opinion, the odds are almost a gift, as almost everything points to a home win ahead of this match.
The Villans are very strong at home, had a solid preseason, kept their superstars together, and also won the last duel against the Magpies confidently 4-1. In addition, things are looking rather bleak for the visitors, because in addition to the almost inevitable departure of Alexander Isak, the club has also received one rejection after another in its search for a replacement (Sesko, Ekitike, Wissa, Delap, Jackson).
Alternatively, you can also add the Aston Villa vs. Newcastle odds for “both teams to score – yes” to your betting slip. In the last seven matches, an average of 4.3 goals were scored. Offensively, both teams have a lot to offer, but they tend to neglect their defensive work from time to time.
