Will the West Flemish team impress again in Lombardy?

Of course, the UEFA Champions League league table is meaningless after just one game. Nevertheless, Atalanta Bergamo is unlikely to be pleased with its current position at the bottom of the table, which was caused by a clear 0-4 defeat to defending champions Paris Saint-Germain. FC Bruges, on the other hand, is in third place after a surprisingly high 4-1 opening victory over AS Monaco, a position the Belgians would now love to defend in Lombardy. However, the trend for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bruges is toward a home win for the Nerazzurri, who have lost their last three Champions League games – two of them against today’s visitors, who knocked “La Dea” out of the intermediate round in February this year.

Given that FCB has the upper hand in the direct comparison with the Lombards, it is all the more difficult to follow the prediction of a home win or points for the Italians in Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bruges. After all, another away win for the Blue and Blacks cannot be ruled out, as they have lost only one of their last five Champions League games in the league phase (two wins, two draws) – a 1-3 defeat at Manchester City in January, in which the Belgians also scored. In our opinion, betting on a high-scoring match offers great value, with our tip favoring over 2.5 goals.

Given that the West Flanders know exactly where the opponent’s goal is and also scored four goals against AS Monaco on the first matchday of the Champions League league phase, we also consider an away goal by Nicky Hayen’s team to be very likely. Alternatively, you can also bet on both teams scoring, for which Winamax is offering odds of 1.62 for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bruges.

Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bruges Prediction AI

Where we tend to have reservations from a human perspective, the cool AI sees a positive expected value. The ODDSET app offers odds of 1.91 for a home win for the Nerazzurri, suggesting a 52.4 percent probability of this outcome. However, the BETSiE supercomputer calculates a 67.1 percent chance of victory for Atalanta Bergamo in the Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bruges AI prediction, which is worlds above. The value found by the AI in tip 1 is correspondingly high.

Atalanta Bergamo – Statistics & current form

Last season, Atalanta Bergamo lost only three of their ten games in the Champions League (four wins, three draws) – but two of those defeats were against today’s visitors from Bruges (the third was against Real Madrid). The current losing streak is striking: “La Dea” lost their last three Champions League games in a row, which was the club’s longest losing streak in this competition (previously in September/October 2019).

Defensively, in particular, they have been very shaky recently: four clean sheets at the start of 2024/25 were followed by only one more clean sheet in the last seven games (15 goals conceded). At the start of this season, they lost 4-0 to Paris SG, with 13 shots on goal, more than ever before in a Champions League game for the Bergamo team. In our opinion, it is therefore reasonable to predict that Atalanta Bergamo will not keep a clean sheet against Bruges either.

Atalanta Bergamo wants to get rid of the red lantern again

However, there are still some bright spots for Ivan Juric’s team. Raoul Bellanova, for example, created the most chances (three) against Paris and played the most line-breaking passes (eight) of any Atalanta player. In addition, Charles De Ketelaere could make history: he would be the first professional to score both for and against Club Brugge in the UEFA Champions League. At the same time, he remains the youngest Belgian ever to score for today’s guests from West Flanders in these competitions (19 years, 224 days).

In any case, the task is clear: to relinquish the red lantern and secure the first three points of the league phase. To do so, “La Dea” must find the balance between defense and attacking and stabilize the recently exposed defense in order to neutralize Club Brugge’s direct style of play.

Bruges – Statistics & current form

FC Bruges had long had only bad experiences with Serie A teams before the intermediate round of the previous season. The two victories over Atalanta Bergamo ended a series of 15 European competitive games without a win against teams from Italy (six draws, nine defeats).

But their current form in the UEFA Champions League group stage is also good, with only one defeat in their last five games (two wins, two draws). They got off to a flying start this season, beating Monaco 4-1 on the first matchday of the group stage with 26 shots (only Real Madrid had more with 28). In addition, the West Flemish team leads the rankings for direct attacks (seven) and has the second-highest attack speed in open play (2.3 meters per second, only Union Saint-Gilloise is higher).

Is Bruges being underestimated?

Accordingly, we find it difficult to understand the odds for Atalanta Bergamo against Bruges, which clearly put the visitors at a disadvantage. At Betano, where new customers can also get a €20 Betano freebet, the odds for another away win for Hayen’s team are 3.90.

Hans Vanaken made his mark at the start with a goal and an assist and now has 14 direct goal contributions for FCB in the Champions League (eleven goals, three assists) – at least twice as many as any other Bruges player. The team’s approach is unlikely to change. After all, the high direct approach, the many shots on goal, and the clear box runs will find clear opportunities at Atalanta, as “La Dea” has only kept a clean sheet in seven games. If the Belgians manage to maintain the pace of their transitions and preserve the efficiency they showed in the Monaco game, they will be able to make their mark away from home once again.

Atalanta Bergamo – Bruges Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 0 – 0 – 2

Seven and a half months ago, the two clubs met for the only time in competitive action in the UEFA Champions League intermediate round. After FC Bruges won the first leg in Belgium 2–1 against Atalanta Bergamo, the Blue and Blacks also celebrated a 3–1 victory against the Italians in the return leg in Lombardy.

Atalanta Bergamo – Bruges Tip

While the AI clearly favors the northern Italians, from a human perspective, we find the prediction of a home win for Atalanta Bergamo against Bruges too risky. FC Bruges repeatedly proved to be a giant killer in the Champions League last season, leaving teams such as Bologna, Leipzig, Girona, and Zagreb behind in the league phase. On the first matchday, the West Flanders team also defeated AS Monaco – Champions League finalists 21 years ago – 4-1, underlining their scoring threat.

All in all, we wouldn’t really rule out any result, especially in the three-way market, which is why we’re steering clear of betting on the outcome of the match, contrary to the AI recommendation. However, there are many indications that the game in Lombardy is likely to be high-scoring, which is why betting on at least three goals being scored promises much greater value anyway.

For over 2.5 goals, the betting odds for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bruges are 1.60, which we are betting on at Bet-at-home with six out of ten units.