Will the Nerazzurri score against the Blues, who are in poor form?

With ten points out of a possible 15, both Atalanta Bergamo and Chelsea FC got off to a good start in the Champions League group stage. In the current Champions League table, the Nerazzurri are in tenth place and the Londoners are even in seventh place due to their five-goal better goal difference. However, if Atalanta Bergamo beat Chelsea at home, La Dea would almost certainly move into the top eight.

However, the bookmakers consider the Bergamo team, which is still in deep crisis in Serie A and suffered a 1-3 defeat at Hellas Verona on Saturday, to be the underdogs. However, we consider the prediction of an away win for the Blues in Atalanta Bergamo vs. Chelsea to be extremely risky. Not only has CFC been waiting for a win in four Champions League away games (one draw, three defeats), but the Londoners are also in poor form at the national level and have been waiting for another win in three league games (two draws, one defeat).

What has only worked moderately well nationally so far is working internationally for both teams, namely defending. The fact that both teams have lost only one game each in the first five matchdays of the CL league phase is also due to their defensive stability. We therefore do not expect a goal fest in Lombardy, which is why we recommend the Asian line of under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.67 for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Chelsea as our main tip.

Atalanta Bergamo vs. Chelsea Prediction AI

AI also expects a goal fest. On the entire sixth matchday of the Champions League group stage, AI expects fewer goals in only four other games. However, according to the AI prediction, the greatest value is to be found in Atalanta Bergamo vs. Chelsea in the three-way system, due to the high odds being offered for a home win for the Nerazzurri. The 3.30 for tip 1 implies a probability of 30.3 percent. The AI adds one and a half percentage points and calculates a 31.8 percent chance of victory for “La Dea,” which promises value.

Atalanta Bergamo – Statistics & current form

At first, it looked as if Juric’s successor, Raffaele Palladino, could bring Atalanta Bergamo back to its lost consistency. After the 3-0 win in Frankfurt on the last matchday of the CL league phase, the hoped-for turnaround also came in Serie A. A 2-0 win against Fiorentina was followed by a resounding 4-0 victory against Genoa in the Coppa Italia. But then the Nerazzurri suffered a surprise 3-1 defeat at Hellas Verona on Saturday and slipped to twelfth place.

Now they are looking to regain their confidence in the Champions League. Basically, the odds for an Orobici home win against Chelsea are quite interesting. However, their record against English clubs leaves room for improvement. The Bergamaschi have won only one of seven Champions League matches against Premier League representatives (three draws, three defeats).

Atalanta Bergamo only turned up the heat in the second halves

It is interesting to note that “La Dea” did not score a single goal in the first half of any of their first five Champions League matches. All six of Atalanta’s goals came after the break. In Frankfurt, they even scored three goals in five minutes – a clear pattern that points to late momentum and patience. Defensively, the Lombardy club has also been consistent: since the start of last season, they have kept eight clean sheets in 15 Champions League games, a rate of 53 percent – only Inter Milan has a higher rate (55 percent; eleven out of 20).

Meanwhile, Charles De Ketelaere remains the key to the offense. The 24-year-old Belgian has been involved in 11 goals (five goals, six assists) in his last 11 Champions League appearances and recently ended a streak of six games without a point against Eintracht Frankfurt with two direct contributions.

Chelsea – Statistics & current form

Chelsea FC are facing their first away game in Italy since their 2-0 win at AC Milan in October 2022, following three winless games in the Premier League (two draws, one defeat) and Saturday’s goalless draw at Bournemouth. Previously, the Blues had won only one of their first ten Champions League away games against Italian teams (three draws, six defeats). History therefore urges caution.

In any case, things have not been going well for the Pensioners away from home recently. CFC have failed to win any of their last four Champions League away games (one draw, three defeats). Now, of all times, they are facing their 100th away game in the Champions League (formerly the European Cup). So far, they have won 41 of 99 games, more than any other English team in their first 100 games (across Europe, only Barcelona are ahead with 44).

Chelsea impresses with high ball control

And yet, from the bookmakers’ point of view, Atalanta Bergamo vs. Chelsea is more likely to end in an away win for the Londoners. This is because Enzo Maresca’s team sets the standard in terms of ball possession. Only Manchester City (91.5 percent) and Paris Saint-Germain (91.2 percent) have a higher pass completion rate (89.3 percent) in this Champions League season.

Meanwhile, Moisés Caicedo completes 91.7 percent of his passes under high pressure (111/121) – the third-best figure among midfielders behind Frenkie de Jong (94 percent) and Vitinha (91.9 percent). Up front, 18-year-old Estêvão is making his mark with his efficiency. The Portuguese player has already scored three Champions League goals this season, equaling the record for a teenager under contract in the Premier League in a single Champions League season (set by Wayne Rooney in 2004/05).

Atalanta Bergamo – Chelsea Head-to-head record

Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0

Never before have these two teams played each other in a competitive international match, and this will be their first encounter. However, their experiences against clubs from the opponent’s country are not particularly favorable. While Chelsea have won only two of their last eleven Champions League away games against Serie A representatives (three draws, six defeats), Atalanta Bergamo have won only one of their seven international games against Premier League clubs (three draws, three defeats).

Atalanta Bergamo – Chelsea Tip

Basically, our prediction for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Chelsea tends to favor the home side, who are completely off their game in Serie A and have slipped to twelfth place after their recent 1-3 defeat at Hellas Verona, but who recently recorded a resounding 3-0 victory in Frankfurt in the Champions League. However, it could be significantly more difficult to score against a compact Blues side, who are themselves without a win in three Premier League games (two draws, one defeat).

However, the Bergamo side also bring their own defensive compactness to the table, as evidenced by the fact that they have kept a clean sheet in more than half of their Champions League games since the start of the 2024/25 season (eight out of 15).

Against this backdrop, we do not expect a high-scoring match, especially as a draw would help both teams in their battle for a top-eight finish. Accordingly, we believe the Asian line of under 3.0 goals is an exciting option, as it provides a little more security between the second and possibly third goal.