Will Arsenal take three points from the Basque Country?

Arsenal Football Club plays a decisive role in the best betting odds for the Champions League victory. Behind league rivals Liverpool and FC Barcelona, the Londoners are actually considered to have the best chances of winning the trophy. After their bitter semi-final defeat last season against eventual winners Paris St. Germain, Arteta’s protégés are inevitably determined to be in contention right until the very end. Right from the start, however, the tip for the “Gunners” between Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal is definitely not a sure thing.

After more than ten years of absence from Europe’s most important club competition, the Basques are really keen to hear the Champions League anthem again and then compete with the best clubs on the continent. The red and whites earned their place by finishing fourth in the last La Liga season. Compared to last year’s surprise team from Spain, Girona, “Los Leones” want to cause more of a stir and trip up some of the favorites. However, ahead of Athletic Bilbao’s opening game against Arsenal, my prediction does not favor coach Ernesto Valverde’s team.

This is partly because the home side will be without their most talented individual player, Nico Williams. The Spanish international, who was heavily courted by almost all of Europe’s top clubs in the summer but decided to extend his contract in his Basque homeland, is struggling with muscle problems and is likely to be out until the end of the month.

Without their star player, Bilbao lost 0-1 at home to Alaves at the weekend, lacking any punch in attack. If they fail to score again on Tuesday evening, there is every reason to believe that the odds on a win for the visitors will prove accurate in the Athletic Bilbao vs. Arsenal match.

Athletic Bilbao vs. Arsenal Prediction AI

The Athletic Bilbao vs. Arsenal AI prediction coincides with my assessment of this match. On the one hand, the xG values of 0.73 and 1.28 suggest a low-scoring game with a maximum of two goals. On the other hand, the probability of victory of over 50 percent supports my recommended tip on the visitors.

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

Ernesto Valverde is one of the key factors in Athletic Bilbao’s success. The 61-year-old head coach is in his third spell with the Basques and was also the last coach to lead the “Zuri-Gorriak” in the UEFA Champions League in 2014/15. After three years at FC Barcelona, Valverde returned to northern Spain in 2022 – and with him came success! In 2024, Athletic Club won the Spanish Cup, and in the previous season, they finished fourth in the final standings. In the Europa League, they also reached the semi-finals, where they were finally knocked out by Manchester United.

Is Bilbao too harmless in attack without Nico Williams?

Valverde can look back on an impressive personal record in the Champions League. Only nine of the 42 games he has been in charge of in the Champions League have been lost (23-10-9). Of all Spanish coaches with ten or more CL matches, Valverde has the second-lowest defeat rate behind a certain Pep Guardiola. Also interesting: of the last seven European Cup games in their own stadium, six were won.

Nevertheless, it must be said that their opponents never even came close to reaching the level of their upcoming opponent. In my opinion, this is precisely the crux of the matter, because despite three wins in the first four matchdays of the new season, I don’t see “Los Leones” – especially without their top star Nico Williams – as necessarily capable of withstanding the pressure from the “Gunners” for 90 minutes and still posing a threat in front of goal themselves.

Against the visitors’ strong defense, it is therefore worth considering checking the odds between Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal to see if the Basque Country’s Champions League returnees will remain goalless.

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

To prove the Londoners’ announced defensive strength, it is worth taking a look at the impressive goal difference under Mikel Arteta in the Champions League. In 24 games with the Spaniard on the sidelines, Arsenal FC conceded only 18 goals. The stable defense was also responsible for the English side reaching the semi-finals, conceding only three defeats in 14 CL matches along the way. Significantly, all three defeats came against the finalists PSG (two) and Inter Milan (one).

Arsenal’s defense makes the difference

The 2025/26 season has been very decent so far. Three wins have been recorded after four matchdays in the Premier League. Only away at defending champions Liverpool did they suffer a narrow 0-1 defeat. Dominik Szoboszlai’s free kick was also the only goal the reigning runners-up have conceded so far. They have scored nine goals themselves, three of them at the weekend in a comfortable 3-0 home win against Nottingham Forest, where Arteta’s team once again made a very mature, clinical and serious impression.

These are exactly the qualities needed to quickly knock the wind out of an emotional opponent bursting with anticipation. When you consider that the Londoners have earned the most points after Real Madrid in the group and league phases of the Champions League over the past two years, it quickly becomes clear why I recommend betting on an away win for the favorites between Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal. Betting pro Chris Feuring has prepared additional favorite tips for the Champions League for you.

Athletic Bilbao – Arsenal Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

As luck would have it, the two clubs had never faced each other in a direct duel until a little over a month ago. However, as part of their preseason preparations, the Basques visited the Emirates Stadium in London at the beginning of August 2025. Goals from Viktor Gyökeres, Bukayo Saka, and the once again injured Kai Havertz gave Arsenal a confident 3-0 victory.

Now, looking back on the last two seasons, the Gunners have the chance to defeat a Spanish opponent in competitive play for the sixth time in a row. Bilbao will put up a fight, however, as the Red and Whites have lost only two of their ten home games in European competition against Premier League representatives (5-3-2).

Athletic Bilbao – Arsenal Tip

Athletic Bilbao, last year’s Europa League semi-finalists, face Arsenal FC, semi-finalists in last season’s Champions League. However, the expectations are different, because while the home side would certainly consider reaching the playoffs a success, the Londoners are determined to have a say in who lifts the trophy.

I expect this to be evident right from the first matchday of the league phase. The English side are significantly stronger in terms of quality and rely above all on their brutally stable defense.

The home team will also be without their most dangerous offensive player, Nico Williams. I therefore recommend betting on a win for the visitors at odds of 1.90 for the match between Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal. Alternatively, you could also bet on a combination of X2 & Under 3.5 to reduce the risk. Risk-averse bettors should also keep an eye on a “clean sheet” victory for Arteta’s team!