Will Barça maintain their lead at San Mamés?
It could have been the final of the 2026 Copa del Rey. However, while the Leones lost both legs of the Basque derby against Real Sociedad 0-1, Barça were also unable to avoid elimination in the semi-finals despite a passionate comeback.
After losing 4-0 to Atlético Madrid in the first leg, the Blaugrana celebrated a 3-0 home win against the Colchoneros on Tuesday evening, confirming their strong form at home. The Catalans have lost their last two competitive away games. Nevertheless, our tip for Athletic Bilbao vs. Barcelona is clearly an away win for Hansi Flick’s team.
After all, the Leones are fond of the former German national coach. Flick has already led FC Barcelona onto the pitch five times against Athletic Bilbao. Five times, the Catalans came away with a victory, with a total score of 16-1. In the first leg, the Blaugrana also didn’t miss a beat in their 4-0 home win. Against this backdrop, we are sticking to the three-way system in our direct comparison of the two failed Copa del Rey semi-finalists and recommend tip 2 in our Athletic Bilbao vs. Barcelona prediction.
However, it is also conceivable that the Leones will once again be crushed by the Blaugrana at their home ground, San Mamés. After all, Athletic Club is not having a particularly convincing season and is currently only ninth in the table, which makes missing out on the Copa del Rey final all the more painful, as it would have been a supposedly easy route into European show business.
Athletic Bilbao – Barcelona Head-to-head record
Head to head: 80 – 40 – 126
A total of 246 matches have been played between the two teams so far, with FC Barcelona leading the head-to-head record with 126 wins. Since Hansi Flick became coach of the Blaugrana, all five competitive matches against Athletic Bilbao have been won with a goal difference of 16:1.
Most recently, FCB recorded a 5-0 victory over the Leones in the Supercopa Espana at the beginning of January 2026. The first leg in La Liga brought a similarly clear 4-0 home win in Catalonia.
Athletic Bilbao – Barcelona Tip
When Barça has suffered unexpected losses in La Liga, it has mostly been away from home, as was the case recently in the Catalan derby against Girona FC (1-2).
Nevertheless, our prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs. Barcelona is clearly an away win for the Blaugrana, who recently benefited from two slip-ups by Real Madrid. FCB also has a tricky Champions League away game in Newcastle coming up on Tuesday, for which it now needs to build up the necessary confidence.
We expect the Catalans to try to overwhelm the Leones, who have already lost eleven of their 26 La Liga games (ten wins, five draws), in the first half in order to secure an away win with as little effort as possible. However, with betting odds of 1.60 for a win for Athletic Bilbao against Barcelona, there is no need to take the risk of any handicaps.
