Will the football minnows from the Basque Country make history?

While Athletic Bilbao is in third-to-last place in the Champions League group stage table with zero points and a goal difference of 1:6, Qarabag Agdam is surprisingly in sixth place. The Atlilar (English: the horsemen) have won both of their games so far and could now become the first club from Azerbaijan ever to win three games in a row in the main round of a European competition. On paper, however, there is very little to suggest that Athletic Bilbao vs. Qarabag FC will result in an away win for the blue and whites.

In six European competitive matches against Spanish clubs to date, the Atlilar have never won (two draws, four defeats). To make matters worse, the Basques have also turned their form around recently. After a sobering 4-1 defeat in Dortmund, the Leones picked up four out of a possible six points in La Liga, but at times lacked punch, which is why a prediction of a high home win for the Spaniards in Athletic Bilbao vs. Qarabag FC also carries high risks. We are therefore applying a handicap of +2 to the visitors, which covers most eventualities.

Particularly brave bettors could also bet on the in-form Atlilar to win, for which odds of 3.50 are being offered in the Betano app for Athletic Bilbao vs. Qarabag FC. A slightly less risky option that still offers a lot of value is to bet that the Basques will score a maximum of one home goal. This also covers a possible 1-0 home win and takes into account the fact that the Leones have scored just ten goals in eleven competitive games in the 2025/26 season.

Athletic Bilbao vs. Qarabag FC Prediction AI

AI does not find our betting recommendation particularly exciting, but of course, due to the very low odds, it also sees little value in betting on a home win for the Basques. Instead, in its AI prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs. Qarabag FC, the AI assumes that the match will not be particularly high-scoring and recommends betting on under 3.0 goals (Asian). Winamax offers odds of 1.82 for this, which translates to a probability of 54.9 percent. The AI, meanwhile, rates the probability at 58.3 percent, which is significantly higher and therefore results in a positive expected value.

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

Athletic Bilbao has played twice against a representative from Azerbaijan (2-0 and 0-0 against Keshla in the 2015/16 Europa League qualifiers) and is now hoping to earn its first point in the CL league phase against surprise team Qarabag Agdam. However, the Leones’ recent home record in Europe is shaky. They have suffered two consecutive defeats without scoring (0-3 against Manchester United, 0-2 against Arsenal).

However, they have never lost three European home games in a row. Nevertheless, San Mames does not seem untouchable overall. They have lost two of their six home games in all competitions (three wins, one draw) – only one less than in their last 24 home games of the previous season (16 wins, five draws, three defeats). Against this backdrop, the odds for tip 1 in Athletic Bilbao vs. Qarabag FC, which are just 1.33 according to the Interwetten app, are far too low to justify a corresponding bet.

Athetic Bilbao with room for improvement in all areas

The offense in particular is struggling, even though Nico Williams, who was heavily courted throughout Europe, was retained against all expectations. Instead, Gorka Guruzeta is Athletic’s only goalscorer in this Champions League season. If he scores again, he would be only the fifth Basque player to score in two consecutive European Champions League games (after Mikel San José, Merodio, Arieta I, and José Luis Artetxe).

At the same time, however, the defense must also be effective: Unai Simón conceded six goals with only 3.2 xG on target – the weakest difference of the first two matchdays (-2.8, excluding own goals). Against a strong opponent, it will take not only a stable box defense and low-error zone play, but above all efficiency up front to stop the negative run.

Qarabag FC – Statistics & current form

The football minnows from Azerbaijan are on the verge of making history. They already have two wins to their name in this Champions League season (3-2 against Benfica, 2-0 against Copenhagen). If Athletic Bilbao beat Qarabag FC, it would be the longest winning streak by an Azerbaijani club in the European Cup.

Qurban Qurbanov’s team is extremely versatile in attack: five goals in two games, already three more than in the entire 2017/18 Champions League season (two in six). All five goals were scored by different players. Only Borussia Dortmund (eight) and Atlético Madrid (six) had more different goalscorers in the first two matchdays.

Qarabag FC also wants to score points in the Basque Country

The team benefits first and foremost from its experience. 33-year-old Abdellah Zoubir was directly involved in both Champions League games (one goal, one assist) and is one of the few players over 30 who both scored and assisted in the first two matchdays (alongside Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mohamed Salah, Hans Vanaken, and Leandro Trossard).

This combination of running, efficiency, and load distribution now faces an opponent who, after two defeats at the start, already has its back against the wall and has recently been lackluster in attack and vulnerable in defense. For the Blue and Whites, the key now is to maintain the balance between transition moments and ball circulation. If they succeed, the next chapter of the current fairy tale may even be written in the Basque Country…

Athletic Bilbao – Qarabag FC Head-to-head record

Never before has there been an international competitive match between the two clubs, who are now meeting for the first time ever. This means that there is no head-to-head data available that could influence our prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs. Qarabag FC in any way.

Athletic Bilbao – Qarabag FC Tip

In our opinion, the betting odds from the top bookmakers are leaning too heavily towards Athletic Bilbao against Qarabag FC, with Interwetten offering odds of just 1.33 for a home win. Considering that the Basques lost both Champions League games 1-6 and struggled to score goals in 2025/26 with only ten goals in eleven competitive games – they couldn’t get past a 0-0 draw at Elche on Sunday either – the fall is enormous, especially since the chance of winning is marginal.

Nevertheless, we would not rule out a home win for the clear favorites, the Basques. However, it is unlikely to be a clear victory, which is why the tip for Athletic Bilbao against Qarabag FC is a +2 handicap on the visitors from Azerbaijan.

For the football minnows to either score again or lose by a maximum of one goal, NEO.bet is offering odds of 1.80, which we are betting on with four out of ten possible units.