Will the Brazilian champions surprise us again?

Ahead of the final matchday, the situation in Group A is extremely tense and exciting. Even Champions League winners Paris St. Germain are far from certain of their place in the round of 16. Ironically, it is the Brazilian champions who lead the standings with maximum points and have a very good chance of advancing to the knockout stages. Ahead of the direct clash between Atletico Madrid and Botafogo, any bet on a point, draw or win for the South Americans will see them through.

While PSG only need three points in their parallel match against Seattle Sounders to make it through to the last 16, the situation is much more complicated for last season’s third-placed team in the Spanish La Liga. If the French win, Simeone’s team will need to beat the Copa Libertadores winners by at least three goals to overtake the surprise team in the three-way tie. Between Atletico Madrid and Botafogo, the prediction for the outcome of the match at the Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena must therefore also take into account the other group match taking place at the same time.

Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form

After their bitter exit from the Champions League round of 16 against Real Madrid, their equally disappointing elimination from the Copa del Rey semi-finals against Barcelona and their third place finish in La Liga, Atletico Madrid had high hopes for the Club World Cup in the USA.

Now, however, they are in danger of being eliminated in the preliminary round. The situation ahead of the final matchday in Group B is anything but rosy, even though the Rojiblancos still have their fate in their own hands. The only problem is that they need to win by at least three goals, which, based on their performances so far, seems highly unlikely. If Atletico Madrid’s match against Botafogo ends with a Spanish victory by a margin of two goals or less, Paris St. Germain must not win their parallel match against Seattle Sounders.

Will Atlético struggle against Botafogo’s defense?

However, even a “simple” victory for Diego Simeone’s team could prove complicated, especially as the Brazilians have been very solid and clinical in defense so far. The Colchoneros, on the other hand, were crushed 4-0 by PSG in their opening game, but then bounced back with a 3-1 win over the Seattle Sounders. Nevertheless, it seems as if the Madrid side are not currently in a position to play at their absolute best. Against this backdrop, I’m not keen on betting on the low odds for a win for the mattress makers between Atletico Madrid and Botafogo.

Although four goals have been scored in both Atletico matches so far and the constellation is known to favor a high-scoring victory for the Spaniards, I’m not necessarily leaning toward a high-scoring match. Botafogo will once again place a lot of emphasis on a multi-legged defense and give the Atletico stars little room to maneuver with the ball. It is therefore shaping up to be a test of patience for the supposed favorites. Nevertheless, I am convinced that Simeone’s team can only advance to the round of 16 if Paris St. Germain surprisingly drops points against Seattle Sounders at the same time.

Predicted line-up:
Oblak – Galan, Le Normand, Lenglet, Llorente – De Paul, Koke, Barrios, Simeone – Alvarez, Sörloth

Botafogo – Statistics & current form

Intensity, mentality, passion, but also tactical cleverness are all attributes that have distinguished Botafogo FR on the first two matchdays of this Club World Cup. On the first matchday, the Brazilians won 2-1 against Seattle Sounders despite a lower xG value. They repeated the feat against Paris St. Germain. Although the club team in the best form in Europe to date had 75% possession and a total of 16 shots on goal, keeper John Citor kept a clean sheet and was one of the key players in the sensational 1-0 win for the Rio de Janeiro side.

With a maximum haul of six points, the reigning champions and 2024 Copa Libertadores winners currently lead Group B and are in a very good position to advance to the round of 16 against all odds. Nevertheless, it is mentally challenging for the players to know that even a defeat by a maximum of two goals will be enough to secure their place in the next round.

By the way: If you really want to bet that the South Americans, who have been so strong so far, will lose by at least three goals, you can find betting odds of 6.00 for Atletico Madrid against Botafogo in the Interwetten app. In this context, it might be worth using the €11 Interwetten free bet for the Club World Cup.

Defense is Botafogo’s biggest asset

What has been evident throughout the tournament so far is that coach Renato Paiva’s team is in great shape and, unlike the European representatives, has a much better rhythm. Nevertheless, they are currently only eighth in their domestic Serie A. However, with just six points behind leaders Flamengo, anything is still possible in terms of defending their title.

Another striking fact is that the black and whites have conceded only seven goals in eleven league games. Their compact defense, which is characterized by tough tackling and a generally high defensive awareness, is the biggest asset the men from Rio de Janeiro have to offer. On Monday evening, the focus will once again be on defending. After winning the ball, they will look to hit their opponents on the break.

The longer the score remains 0-0, the higher the probability that Botafogo will ultimately secure their place in the knockout stages. If, for example, no goals are scored in the first 45 minutes, you can pocket an impressive 2.90.

Predicted line-ups:
John Victor – Alex Telles, Barboza, Jair Cunha, Vitinho – Marlon Freitas, Gregore – Allan, Savarino, Artur – Igor Jesus

Atletico Madrid – Botafogo Head-to-head record / H2H record

The two clubs have never faced each other in an official competitive match or a friendly. The head-to-head record is therefore irrelevant for the upcoming encounter. Cross-comparisons are also impossible, although Botafogo feels very comfortable in the role of underdog, especially knowing that even if they fall behind, they don’t have to abandon their defensive structure. It will therefore be the ultimate task for coach Diego Simeone and his players to prevent a worst-case scenario in the form of elimination in the preliminary round.

Atletico Madrid – Botafogo Tip

Will Atletico Madrid, one of the teams considered among the favorites to win the Club World Cup before the tournament began, be eliminated in the preliminary round? The answer to this question will be revealed on Monday evening at 9:00 p.m. In Group B, all teams still have a theoretical chance of finishing in the top two. Botafogo from Brazil has the best cards. Even if they lose by one or two goals, the reigning Copa Libertadores winners would be certain of a place in the round of 16. Atletico therefore needs either a win by at least three goals or at least one point more than PSG against the Seattle Sounders.

Although this constellation actually promises an exciting final matchday and lots of goals at the Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, I think it will be a tough encounter. The reason is that the Brazilians have been outstanding defensively so far and don’t need to take any risks even if they fall behind. Atletico will certainly struggle against a deep-lying defense and could find themselves biting their nails. My Atletico Madrid vs. Botafogo prediction is therefore for a maximum of two goals in 90 minutes. The under 2.5 is priced at 1.91 at Betano and is worth a stake of five units to me.