Will the Nerazzurri’s streak come to an end in Madrid?
On Sunday evening, Inter Milan suffered a setback in the battle for the Scudetto when they lost the Derby della Madonnina against city rivals AC Milan 0-1. In the Champions League group stage, however, the Nerazzurri picked up the maximum haul of twelve points, which is why betting on an away win for the Lombards in Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan is definitely an option.
However, Atletico Madrid are an absolute force at home. Not only do the Colchoneros lead the La Liga home table with 19 out of a possible 21 points, but they have also won eleven of their last twelve home games in the Champions League (one defeat). Nevertheless, the Nerazzurri have only been beaten once in all four CL games and, to make matters worse, conceded that goal from a set piece. A point is therefore by no means out of the question. However, as a high-scoring match is likely, our prediction for Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan is under 2.5 goals at the Metropolitano.
If you don’t want to rule out a possible third goal – after all, Inter have scored eleven goals and have one of the best attacks in the Champions League group stage – you could also consider combining the corresponding under bet with the double chance 1X. For the match combo that the Colchoneros will score but a maximum of three goals will be scored in total, Merkur Bets is offering odds of 1.86 for Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan.
Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan Prediction AI
For an AI prediction to be made for Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan, the odds offered by the best bookmakers in any market must suggest a lower probability of occurrence than the value calculated by the BETSiE supercomputer. However, after checking all the AI data, from the three-way system to goal bets to Asian handicaps, this is not the case for a single tip. Because tips without value are a losing proposition, the only serious approach is to skip this match.
Nevertheless, since betting odds are constantly changing, value can still arise at short notice. The closest case was tip 2. If, for example, the odds for an away win for the Nerazzurri increase by just 0.05 (currently the odds in the Bet365 app are 3.10; even 3.15 would promise value), there would be a mathematically positive expected value, at least in the risky underdog bet.
AI prediction Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan:
No value tip possible!
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atletico Madrid has also struggled this season. However, since their 4-0 defeat at Arsenal FC, the Colchoneros have been in excellent form. The capital club has recently secured five competitive wins in a row, finally putting in a convincing performance away from home. A 2-0 win at Betis Sevilla was followed by a 1-0 win at neighbors Getafe in Sunday’s dress rehearsal, which saw Diego Simeone’s side consolidate fourth place.
At home, however, the Rojiblancos remain a formidable opponent. In La Liga, they have picked up 19 out of a possible 21 points at the Metropolitano, and in the Champions League, they won both games against Frankfurt (5-1) and St. Gilloise (3-1). In fact, Atleti have won eleven of their last twelve Champions League home games (one defeat), which clearly underlines their impressive home form.
Will Atletico Madrid counter their way to another home win?
Against this backdrop, the odds for tip 1 are quite interesting for Atletico Madrid against Inter Milan, especially since Interwetten is offering 2.30 for a home win.
Of the ten Champions League goals scored this season, four came from quick counterattacks (40 percent) – the highest figure in the competition. In the 3-1 win against Union Saint-Gilloise, there were three counterattack goals. Since the start of the 2023/24 season, Julián Álvarez has also exceeded his xG value in the Champions League by the widest margin: 14 goals with 6.4 xG means a difference of +7.6 – the best in the competition.
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
Inter Milan is one of only three clubs, alongside Arsenal and Bayern, to have started the Champions League group stage with four wins. For the first time in the club’s history, the Nerazzurri could now even win their first five games in the Champions League. In Italy, only AC Milan in 1992/93 with six wins and Juventus in 2004/05 and Napoli in 2022/23 with five wins have achieved this feat.
At least nationally, however, there was a bitter setback in the battle for the 2026 Scudetto. Ironically, it was against city rivals AC Milan that they suffered a 0-1 home defeat in the derby on Sunday evening, causing the Biscione to slip from first to fourth place. The Rossoneri showed how to deal with Inter’s powerful offense, which has not only scored 26 times in Serie A, but also 11 goals in the Champions League.
Inter Milan were also really good defensively
Defensively, however, Cristian Chivu’s team did not concede a single goal from open play in the first four matchdays. Only Kairat Almaty scored against the Lombards from a corner. This in turn underlines our prediction for Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan that a goal fest is unlikely in the Spanish capital, even though long-time star Lautaro Martínez, who is only the fifth Inter player behind Javier Zanetti, Esteban Cambiasso, Iván Córdoba, and Júlio César, could now play his 50th Champions League game for the Nerazzurri, the next generation is already waiting in the wings.
The 20-year-old Francesco Pio Esposito, who is still flying somewhat under the radar, averages 6.6 shots per 90 minutes in the Champions League (seven chances created, 13 shots in 274 minutes). Among all U21 players in the current Champions League league phase, only Lamine Yamal and Estevao currently surpass him…
Atletico Madrid – Inter Milan Head-to-head record
Head to head: 2 – 0 – 1
The two teams have faced each other three times in international competitive matches so far, with Atletico Madrid leading the head-to-head record with two wins. Not only did the Colchoneros, as the then Europa League winners, prevail 2-0 against the Nerazzurri in the 2010 UEFA Super Cup, in which current coach Cristian Chivu was still on the field, In the round of 16 of the 2023/24 Champions League, the Colchoneros also came out on top, making up for a 1-0 first-leg defeat in Lombardy with a home win and then prevailing in a penalty shootout.
Atletico Madrid – Inter Milan Tip
Basically, our prediction for Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan leans toward the Colchoneros, who are extremely strong at home and have won eleven of their last twelve Champions League home games (one defeat). Due in particular to their defensive strength, even top clubs are extremely reluctant to travel to the Metropolitano, where the Nerazzurri have lost their only away game so far. In any case, the Lombards have not won any of their eleven European away games in Spain (four draws, eight defeats).
Nevertheless, the Italians are in extremely good form despite their recent derby defeat. The Nerazzurri have won all four of their Champions League games, conceding only one goal, which came from a corner. The Colchoneros will therefore have to break down the Italian defense first. There is not much to suggest a goal fest.
We therefore recommend betting on under 2.5 goals in this Spanish-Italian duel. Bet-at-home is offering odds of 1.95 for Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan, which we are betting on with four out of ten units.
