Are the Rojiblancos already thinking about the derby?
Diego Simeone has been coaching the Atletico Madrid team for 14 years. He has given the fans eight titles – the last one with the 2020/21 championship. This year’s squad seems to be broader than most of the previous ones, but in the Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano tip, the Colchoneros are struggling with their weak start to the season.
After five matchdays, the hosts are already nine points behind league leaders and city rivals Real Madrid. Los Blancos travel to the Civitas Metropolitano this coming weekend. But first, let’s take a closer look at the Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano prediction.
The alarm bells are not ringing yet. The best sports betting providers are giving the Rojiblancos clear favorite status in their own stadium and are offering Atletico Madrid – Rayo Vallecano betting odds of less than 1.60 for Atleti’s second three points of the still young La Liga season.
The visitors have only won one of their last five league games, but they did manage to take a point off FC Barcelona (1-1) and held last season’s best offense to a single goal. Defensively, Inigo Perez’s team is performing well.
Both teams have conceded more than one goal in only one of their five matchdays. In addition, the Colchoners (3.59 non-pen xGA) and the Franjirrojos (4.72 non-pen xGA) have two of the six best expected defenses in La Liga.
Atletico Madrid – Rayo Vallecano Head-to-head record
On February 10, 2013, Rayo Vallecano beat the Rojiblancos 2-1 at their home stadium. At that time, Diego Simeone had been in office for less than two years. To date, this is Atletico Madrid’s last defeat in a direct comparison with the Rayistas. Rayo Vallecano has not won a single victory in the 18 subsequent matches (4W, 14D).
Inigo Perez’s team has not had a better chance of winning than in the upcoming match for a long time. Atletico Madrid has had a poor start to the season with only one win in its first six competitive games and has ended three of its five La Liga appearances with a 1-1 draw.
Atletico Madrid – Rayo Vallecano Tip
Both teams have scored a maximum of one goal in four of their five La Liga games. Likewise, both opponents have managed to prevent more than one goal in four of their five La Liga matchdays. In the table, Atletico Madrid (6) and Rayo Vallecano (5) are only one point apart.
The visitors usually choose a high defensive line and allow only 10.3 passes per defensive action in the attacking third (4th). Atletico (44) has collected slightly more high ball recoveries than the Franjirrojos (42), but unlike the visitors (8 shots, 1 goal), they have converted far fewer of these moments into goals of their own (3, 1 goal).
At the front end of the field, the Colchoneros are still far from their target level. No La Liga team has scored fewer goals from open play than Simeone’s side (2), but they have managed at least three goals from their own counterattacks.
Rayo Vallecano has conceded only one goal from open play (3rd) and ranks directly behind Real Madrid and FC Barcelona (0 goals conceded from open play each) and ahead of Atlético Madrid (2) in the league comparison. For us, there are many indications that this match will be a low-scoring encounter.
