Who will secure a place in the cup final?
On Thursday, January 8, 2026, Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid will face each other in the semifinals of the Spanish Super Cup. The winner of the city derby will face the winner of the match between FC Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao, which will be played the day before. In the Atlético Madrid vs. Real Madrid prediction, we will now look at which of the two teams has the better chance of reaching the final. At first glance, Los Blancos seem to have the better chances.
Xabi Alonso’s team is in second place in La Liga and already has seven points more than its city rival. However, Los Blancos are also plagued by injury worries and even have to do without their best player. Kylian Mbappe is currently struggling with a knee injury and, with 34 points, is almost irreplaceable.
We deliberately chose the word “hard to replace” because Gonzalo Garcia proved the opposite last weekend in the 5-1 win over Real Betis. The 21-year-old Spaniard already attracted attention at the Club World Cup and celebrated his first hat trick in a commanding home win. Mbappe watched the game from the stands and was visibly thrilled by his teammate’s performance.
The clear victory against “Los Verdiblancos” will also be one of the reasons why, despite the absence of the French superstar, the odds for Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid favor the Royal’s advancement. Nevertheless, the bookmakers remain cautious and are even offering us maximum odds of 2.45 for a victory for “Los Blancos.”
However, betting on a victory for the Royals in the Atlético Madrid vs. Real Madrid match also carries a risk, as Xabi Alonso’s team lost 2-5 in the last duel between the two teams. With Carvajal, Diaz, and Militao also missing alongside Mbappe, and players such as Huijsen and Alexander-Arnold only just back from injury, another setback cannot be ruled out. Diego Simeone’s team can only be partially satisfied with their season so far, as Los Colchoneros have stumbled often with five defeats in 26 games.
On the other hand, the Rojiblancos are already eleven points behind FC Barcelona and are hardly playing a role in the battle for the La Liga championship. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to secure a victory against one of the two top Spanish teams.
Atletico vs. Real Madrid: probable line-ups
- Oblak – Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Ruggeri – Simeone, Cardoso, Koke, Baena – Sörloth, Alvarez
- Courtois – Valverde, Asencio, Rüdiger, Carreras – Bellingham, Tchouameni, Camavinga – Vinicius, Garcia, Rodrygo
Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid Head-to-head record
Diego Simeone’s team has lost only one of its last eleven matches, putting in a very respectable performance. On the other hand, Los Colchoneros has only managed three wins during this period, with seven matches ending in a draw – that’s almost 64%.
No wonder, then, that the betting odds for Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid are fairly even. In light of this, it might even be advisable to switch from a win bet to a goal bet. This is also supported by the following fact: in ten of the last eleven matches, both teams had something to celebrate. Xabi Alonso’s team has even conceded at least one goal in each of the last 13 meetings.
Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid Tip
In the first four sections of our analysis, we have already indicated that a win bet involves a great deal of risk. The Royals are the favorites on paper, but without Kylian Mbappe they are significantly weaker than with their top scorer. Added to this, of course, is the disastrous result from the last match, which the Rojiblancos won 5-2.
On the other hand, it is not without reason that Los Colchoneros are significantly behind their city rivals in the Spanish top flight.
For these reasons, we have decided on the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid betting tip “both teams to score.” Here we see significantly more potential and less risk.
Alternatively, you can also add the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid odds for over 2.5 goals in the game to your betting slip. Especially in a knockout game, the two teams will give their all and do everything they can to reach the final. If we then take into account the offensive qualities of the two teams and the problems they sometimes have in defense, the three goals required should not be a particularly big hurdle.
This was already evident in the last meeting between the two sides, when a total of seven (!) goals were scored. We don’t expect a goal fest on this scale, but the game shouldn’t be low-scoring either.
