Only victory counts for the Storks
In the first leg, FC Augsburg were completely outclassed at the Förde, losing 1-5, and were also in the midst of a relegation battle. But then the Fuggerstadt club went on a clear upward trend, conceding just ten goals in total in the following 16 league games. As a result, the odds are not particularly good for Augsburg against Kiel, with the relegation-threatened Storks tipped to win again.
The North Germans have gone unbeaten twice in a row (one win, one draw), but have conceded an incredible 74 goals and picked up just 22 points from 31 league games. If 1. FC Heidenheim beat Bochum on Friday evening, the gap to the relegation play-off spot would be six points. In any case, it would be a bitter setback for KSV in terms of staying in the league if the prediction of an away win in Augsburg against Kiel does not come true.
Kiel fans can take heart from the fact that KSV Holstein is the only Bundesliga team not to have failed to score in any of its 15 away games in the 2024/25 season, a feat achieved only by Liverpool FC in Europe’s top five leagues. Far more worrying, however, is the fact that despite scoring 22 away goals, the Storks have won only one of their 15 Bundesliga away games (five draws, nine defeats) and have picked up just eight points on the road – the lowest tally in the league.
Augsburg vs. Kiel prediction AI
In the three-way system, supercomputer BETSiE does not see any value. However, the AI shares our assessment that there should not be too many goals. BETSiE calculates an expected goals value of 1.35 for FCA and 0.77 for KSV – a total of 2.12. According to the AI prediction, there is a 63.6 percent probability that Augsburg will score less than 2.5 goals against Kiel. Because VBET is offering odds of 2.01 for this betting option, which implies a probability of just 49.7 percent, the under bet is clearly in the value range.
Augsburg – Statistics & current form
FC Augsburg has suffered minor setbacks recently and, after an impressive start to the second half of the season, has won only once in its last four Bundesliga games (one draw, two defeats). Prior to that, the team had gone eleven Bundesliga games in a row without defeat. With a total of 24 points in the second half of the season, FCA currently occupies third place in the second half of the table – only FC Bayern Munich (33) and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (29) have been more successful.
The defensive work has improved significantly since the start of the year: in the 16 Bundesliga games in 2025, the Bavarian Swabians have conceded only ten goals – the best record in the league in the current calendar year. However, their attacking impetus has been limited recently, with FCA scoring just four goals in the final quarter of an hour. Only VfL Bochum has been less dangerous in this regard.
Augsburg creates few chances but is very solid defensively
The Fuggerstadt team is generally cautious in its attacking play. With an average of only 11.2 shots on goal per game, they have the fewest shots in the league and are also in the bottom third of the rankings with only 20.6 penalty area actions per game. Nevertheless, Augsburg has won four of its last six Bundesliga home games against promoted teams (one draw, one defeat).
In the return leg, they will be particularly keen to avenge their bitter 1-5 defeat in the first leg. The bookmakers are confident that Jess Thorup’s team will succeed in their quest for revenge. The best bookmakers are clearly favoring Augsburg against Kiel, with odds of around 1.80 for a home win. This also takes into account the fact that only four of the 15 Bundesliga home games in the 2024/25 season have been lost, which in turn is due to the stable home defense. With only 15 goals conceded at home, FCA has the best home defense in the top flight of German soccer.
Kiel – Statistics & current form
Holstein Kiel are hoping for a late surge in the season: the newly promoted side are unbeaten in their last two games (one win, one draw), and three games without defeat would be a new club record in the Bundesliga for the Storks. Nevertheless, the situation remains precarious, with the team three points adrift of the relegation play-off spot.
With 74 goals conceded, Marcel Rapp’s team also has by far the weakest defense in the league. Only Tasmania Berlin (1965/66) and Tennis Borussia Berlin (1974/75) conceded more goals as Bundesliga newcomers after 31 games. Nevertheless, the Storks have also achieved a record: they have scored in each of their 15 Bundesliga away games so far – a feat previously achieved only by 1. FC Nürnberg in 2004/05 and currently only by Liverpool FC in Europe’s top five leagues.
Kiel needs an away win in Augsburg
Kiel’s attacking qualities are particularly evident in the closing stages: with 16 goals in the last quarter of an hour, they are second in the league behind FC Bayern (19). However, their play remains patchy. With an average of only 11.2 shots and 17.9 penalty area actions per game, Kiel is the most cautious team in the top flight, which is why the prediction that Augsburg will not concede an away goal for the first time this season is entirely valid. After all, FCA has the best home defense in the league.
Shuto Machino (ten goals this season) and Alexander Bernhardsson stand out individually: the latter was involved in four goals in April, more than any other player in the top flight of German soccer that month. For Kiel, however, only victory counts in the Fuggerstadt, and the 5-1 win in the first leg should remain in the back of their minds as they look to cause an upset away from home, even though no other team has picked up fewer away points than the Storks in 2024/25 (only eight).
Augsburg – Kiel Head-to-head record / H2H record
Head to head: 1 – 0 – 1
Before the first leg, which Holstein Kiel won remarkably clearly 5-1, the two teams had only met once in the 2018/19 season in the DFB Cup. In the round of 16, the Fuggerstadt team celebrated a 1-0 away win at the Förde. Now the Storks are visiting FC Augsburg for the first time ever.
Augsburg – Kiel Tip
Although KSV celebrated a resounding 5-1 victory over FCA in the first leg, we have found nothing in our analysis to suggest that the Storks’ away win would be a sensible prediction for the return leg between Augsburg and Kiel. The North Germans have scored in all 15 away games in the top flight of German soccer.
However, they have won only one of those 15 games (five draws, nine defeats). Since the 1-5 defeat in the first leg, the Fuggerstadt team has conceded just ten more goals in 16 consecutive league games and has definitely learned its lessons from the defeat at the Förde.
Given FCA’s solid defense, we even think it’s possible that KSV will fail to score away from home for the first time, but we wouldn’t rule out a goal from the Storks either. We therefore recommend the combined tip of double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals, which covers a wide range of possible outcomes – from 0-0 to 1-1 or 2-1.