The Fuggerstadt team had imagined a completely different start to the 2025 competitive season. To kick off the English week, FCA lost 0-4 in Gladbach. Center back Keven Schlotterbeck and coach Manuel Baum lacked the basics that will once again be crucial in the Augsburg vs. Union Berlin tip.
At home, the 15th-placed team made their Bundesliga matches much more open recently and returned to their familiar style of play with Baum on the sidelines. Compact defense was the order of the day. Before our Augsburg vs. Union Berlin prediction, the hosts kept a clean sheet in three consecutive home games (2W, 1D).
If you believe the assessments of betting providers with German licenses and take the Augsburg – Union Berlin betting odds as a basis, Baum’s team should even start the upcoming home game as slight favorites. We do not share this opinion.
On Thursday, the Ironers will be guests at the WWK Arena, a team that follows clear principles week after week and whose style is well known throughout the Bundesliga. Steffen Baumgart and his team are difficult to play against and have been unbeaten for three Bundesliga matchdays (2W, 1D).
The visitors make remarkably few mistakes in their own half or when building up play. They avoid costly errors and turnovers in dangerous areas by virtually eliminating flat build-up play. This leaves opposing teams with little option to win the ball back through high pressing.
Augsburg vs. Union Berlin AI prediction
Our artificial intelligence is slightly more optimistic about the home side’s chances of scoring. The Augsburg vs. Union Berlin AI prediction includes goals at both ends at the end of the first half of the season.
Augsburg – Statistics & current form
Sandro Wagner is not the first FCA coach whose idea of a more attractive style of play with more focus on the playful element has been rejected by the club at an early stage. Following his dismissal, Manuel Baum is back on the sidelines and with him the old FCA identity.
Like his predecessor, the 46-year-old sends the 15th-placed team onto the field with a back three. Defensively, the hosts looked more stable than at the start of the season. The first three Bundesliga matches under Manuel Baum saw FCA concede only one goal in total.
At the start of the year, however, the relegation candidates fell back into old patterns. They lacked the basics, and not all players were consistent in their pressing. FCA promptly lost 4-0 to Gladbach and are once again under pressure, in line with the Augsburg vs. Union Berlin odds.
Limited resources
The home side’s attacking play is taking a back seat. The initial aim is to make games tighter again through disciplined defending. In the clash with Gladbach, Augsburg suddenly conceded 3.34 expected goals again and were unable to keep up.
Up front, the hosts are waiting for individual moments. Structurally, FCA are finding their way into dangerous areas far too rarely. The 15th-placed team have not scored in three Bundesliga games, and Augsburg have ended six of their last nine matchdays without scoring.
There has been no real development in this area of the field. Only St. Pauli (0.08 xG/shot) finishes from less promising positions than Baum’s team (0.09 xG/shot). Overall, only two teams have earned fewer expected goals than the hosts (18.28 xG).
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
The visitors are avoiding the bottom of the table this season. Union Berlin are mid-table (22 points) and ten points clear of the relegation zone. Most of their points have been earned on the basis of a solid defense.
Steffen Baumgart’s team combines this with excellent behavior in set pieces at both ends of the field. The Ironers have scored the most goals from set pieces in the league (10). Together with SC Freiburg (9.07 set-piece xG), FCU is at the top in terms of set-piece quality.
At the same time, Baumgart’s players rigorously defend their own penalty area from set pieces. Except for VfB Stuttgart (0), no Bundesliga team has conceded fewer goals from set pieces than the tenth-placed team (2). Almost as strong is the value of 4.40 expected set-piece goals conceded (5th).
In good form
The visitors are unbeaten in their last three Bundesliga games. Union Berlin secured a point (2-2) in their home game against Mainz at the start of the year. Prior to that, the Köpenick-based club had ended the 2025 calendar year on a high note with two victories against RB Leipzig (3-1) and Cologne (1-0).
If the match at the WWK Arena goes according to our Augsburg vs. Union Berlin prediction, the successful run will continue. As things stand, FCU is having its best Bundesliga season of the past three years (22 points after 16 games).
Steffen Baumgart has managed to reestablish the basics. Union Berlin has only allowed seven shots on goal as a result of its own mistakes (5th minute). In addition, the other Bundesliga teams hardly ever get into promising scoring positions in matches against Union (0.10 xGA/shot).
Augsburg – Union Berlin Head-to-head record
Only two of twelve Bundesliga matches between FCA and FCU have gone to the Köpenickers. Union Berlin celebrated one of these two victories in the last match. On matchday 34 of last season, the Ironers snatched a 2-1 away win.
Augsburg – Union Berlin Tip
The home side’s offense is not dangerous either from open play or set pieces. Augsburg has scored only 17 goals so far this season (14th). Only FC St. Pauli (22) had fewer big chances than the Fuggerstadt team (25), who choose many poor finishing positions with 0.09 xG/shot.
There could be more of the same in their home game against Union Berlin. FCU controls its own penalty area in most cases. Around 37 percent of the shots against the tenth-placed team were fired from outside the box – the second-highest figure in the German top flight.
Augsburg itself tends to take a lot of shots from distance (37 percent) in attack. Only the two northern German clubs Werder Bremen (40 percent) and St. Pauli (43 percent) have had a higher rate so far. If FCA can at least regain its defensive organization, a goalless draw could be on the cards.
