Will Rangnick’s Austrians stay on course for the World Cup?
It has been almost 30 years since the Austrian national team last qualified for a World Cup finals. The Red-White-Reds have failed to qualify for a World Cup six times in a row. However, there are now many indications that this long dry spell will finally come to an end next year at the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico.
Firstly, the ÖFB team has not been as high-quality and prominent for a long time as it is now. Secondly, Team Austria already made a strong impression at last year’s European Championship, and thirdly, the start of the World Cup qualifying group H went absolutely according to plan. Ahead of Austria’s third match against Cyprus, there is once again no alternative to betting on Rangnick’s team.
Strictly speaking, however, the three-way odds can even be disregarded. The expected difference in quality between the two teams is too great. This assessment is also in line with the latest results. While Cyprus, after a lackluster opening victory against San Marino (2-0), recently lost to both Romania (0-2) and Bosnia (1-2), Austria is right on target thanks to two victories against Romania (2-1) and San Marino (4-0).
Looking back at the last ten international matches, the team coached by German Ralf Rangnick has only suffered two defeats. The last time the Red-White-Reds conceded more than two goals in an international match was in October 2023. In the past two years, however, the world number 22 has only been able to score more than four goals in 90 minutes on two occasions.
This statistical approach, combined with Austria’s clear favoritism, leads me to predict a home win with under 4.5 goals between Austria and Cyprus. Merkur Bets is offering odds of 1.53 at the top.
Ahead of Austria’s must-win game against Cyprus, the odds on David Alaba and Co. laying the foundation for the planned three points in the first 45 minutes are equally interesting. This is supported, for example, by the fact that Team Austria has a difficult away game in Bosnia on Tuesday evening, which, as things stand, could be decisive in the battle for first place in Group H.
It is therefore not out of the question that the ÖFB boys will switch to management mode if they take the lead and save their energy for the far more important match in Zenica next week. Based on this, my betting recommendation is for Austria to lead by at least two goals at half-time. Odds of 2.67 at Betano indicate value.
Austria – Cyprus Head-to-head record / H2H balance
There have been seven international matches between Austria and Cyprus. With six wins and one draw, the pendulum clearly swings in favor of the Red-White-Reds, who, however, did not win the last direct duel in regular time (1-1), but lost in a friendly match after a penalty shootout. However, this encounter took place 20 years ago, so the head-to-head record will have no influence on the Austria vs. Cyprus betting odds on Saturday evening.
Austria – Cyprus Tip
There were no big surprises in Ralf Rangnick’s squad selection. At least we can look forward to the return of David Alaba, who, however, has hardly any playing practice to bring to Linz. Another exciting personnel decision is certainly Rapid talent Nikolaus Wurmbrand, who has been called up for the first time and could make his debut in red, white, and red.
Otherwise, the successful coach is relying on 13 players from the Bundesliga who play in Germany. The goal of the September doubleheader is to take the top spot in Group H with two wins and thus take the next steps toward the first World Cup appearance since 1998.
In my opinion, the first match on Saturday evening against Cyprus poses few dangers. The Cypriots will sit deep and try to keep a clean sheet for a long time with a compact formation. The underdogs will then try to cause more damage with quick transitions. However, the chances of success are not particularly high, which is why I am clearly betting on a home win, but with a maximum of four goals in the game. This results in combined odds of 1.53, which I am betting on with eight out of a possible ten fictitious units.
