French exhibition match in Baku!
Since Thursday, it has been certain that the French national soccer team will definitely be going to the 2026 World Cup. Thanks to a comfortable 4-0 win against Ukraine, the 2018 World Cup winners can no longer be overtaken at the top of Group D. Sunday’s away game in Baku is therefore merely a formality. Nevertheless, the team led by coach Didier Deschamps, who will be stepping down after next year’s finals, will naturally want to live up to their role as favorites and secure their fifth win in their sixth group game.
Ahead of the Azerbaijan vs. France match, my prediction is also relatively clear in favor of the “Equipe Tricolore,” which, incidentally, last scored more than four goals in an international match almost exactly two years ago. The French have scored five or more goals in only seven of 174 international matches since Deschamps took office in 2012. A particularly high-scoring victory is therefore not necessarily on the cards for the final qualifying match.
Logically, this also has to do with the opponent, because although the Azerbaijanis have only managed to score one point so far and are already certain to finish bottom of the group, they have also shown glimpses of their quality. In the first leg in France, for example, it took until stoppage time in the first half before Les Bleus took the lead through Kylian Mbappe. At home against Ukraine (1-1), they even managed to earn a point. Against Iceland (0-2) on Thursday evening, the defeat was also kept within limits.
Nevertheless, when looking at the Azerbaijan vs. France prediction, it must be taken into account that the hosts have now gone 15 (!) international games without a win. Twelve of those 15 games were actually lost. They have only managed to score a measly six goals. The world number 123 has failed to score in nine of its games since summer 2024.
Several conclusions can be drawn from the statistics above. For example, the odds on the favorites winning by a maximum of four goals in the Azerbaijan vs. France match are interesting.
Alternatively, it is definitely an option to bet on the home team, which has seven players from the surprise Champions League team Qarabag Agdam in its squad, failing to score again. Because the French also tend to struggle to get off to a good start in matches, the Azerbaijan vs. France betting odds for more goals after the break are also worth considering.
Azerbaijan – France Head-to-head record
The head-to-head record is quickly dealt with. There have been three meetings between the two teams so far. The first two matches in the mid-1990s (10-0 and 2-0 for France) can be safely disregarded. Far more exciting are the impressions from the first leg, which took place a good month ago at the Parc des Princes in Paris. France won 3-0 in the end, but only had two big chances over the 90 minutes. Azerbaijan defended with everything they had and will certainly not change this approach on Sunday evening in front of their home crowd. It therefore looks set to be another test of patience for Les Bleus.
Azerbaijan – France Tip
The French national soccer team has brilliantly secured its ticket to the 2026 World Cup. Although glitz and glamour are known to be foreign words for the 2018 world champions in the Deschamps era, the French celebrated four wins out of five games and remained completely undefeated.
However, the fact that they scored “only” 13 goals in total underlines that Mbappe and Co. struggled at times against weaker opponents. Even in the first leg in front of their home crowd (3-0), the “Equipe Tricolore” did not set off any offensive fireworks. In any case, the French have rarely scored more than four goals in a game in the last 13 years – seven times in 174 games.
Apart from that, it remains to be seen whether coach Didier Deschamps will once again let all his stars off the leash in this insignificant duel or whether he will use this match, which is more like a test game, to give other players a chance to recommend themselves for the 2026 tournament in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. All in all, I have no doubt that the favorites will win, but in my Azerbaijan vs. France prediction, I would still combine the French three points with under 4.5 goals. I am confidently betting six units on the 1.68 odds offered by Merkur Bets. The odds for an away win including a clean sheet are similarly high and attractive!
