Will HSV get thrashed in Munich?

Hamburger SV has already reached its limits, so to speak, in the first two match days. With only one point and not a single goal scored, the promoted team has settled into the lower reaches of the table and will probably not be able to leave them this weekend. On Saturday evening, the Rothosen have to face the toughest of all tasks in the German top flight when they travel to FC Bayern. For many experts, the main question is therefore which Bayern vs. HSV tip will yield the most profitable odds for the record champions.

While the North Germans are struggling to get off the ground, the reigning champions lead the table with maximum points. The Munich team scored a whopping nine goals in their first two games against RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg. I expect the FCB offense to be in goal-scoring mood again in the third matchday of the Bundesliga.

Nevertheless, before the Bayern vs. HSV match, it must be taken into account that Kompany’s team will start the Champions League group stage next week and may therefore shift down a gear or two if they take a big lead.

It may therefore be wise to check the odds between Bayern and HSV to see if the favorites will lay the foundation for their third win in three matches in the first 45 minutes. Merkur Bets, for example, offers an extensive selection of corresponding betting options.

Bayern vs. HSV Prediction AI

No other Bundesliga match this weekend has artificial intelligence as confident as the traditional duel between FC Bayern and Hamburger Sportverein. An almost 90% probability of victory in favor of the champions illustrates this, as do the predicted xG values of 3.52 to 0.65. Four or more goals for Kane, Olise, Diaz, and Co. are also within the realm of possibility, which is why the 2.00 odds for the Bayern vs. HSV AI prediction on over 3.5 for the home team in the Interwetten app seem attractive.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

For the fourth time in a row, FC Bayern Munich has started a new Bundesliga season with two wins. In the last three years, the German record champions have always picked up three points on the third matchday, having won more games against HSV than any other team in the history of the top flight except for VfB Stuttgart.

However, it is not only history that points to a clear victory for Munich on Saturday evening. Current form also suggests that the title contenders will enjoy a resounding success. This is particularly likely if coach Vincent Kompany’s team can build on their performance from their first home game of the season against RB Leipzig. The Saxons were swept out of the Allianz Arena 6-0. Anyone who wants to make another prediction before the uneven duel between Bayern and HSV that the men from the Isar will win both halves will find a maximum odds of 1.65 at Betano.

Will Kane put Bayern on the road to victory?

It could also make sense to bet on the leaders taking an early lead. Bayern have led at half-time in all four competitive games this season. They have not conceded a goal before the break. In the Bundesliga, they were even 2-0 up against RBL and FCA after 45 minutes. It therefore goes without saying that my recommendation is to bet on a Munich handicap half-time lead between Bayern and HSV.

Alternatively, Interwetten is offering odds of 3.15 on Harry Kane scoring the first goal of the game. In the DFB Cup against Wehen-Wiesbaden and in the Super Cup against VfB Stuttgart, such a bet would have been successful. Finally, the question remains whether Nicolas Jackson will make his debut in the FCB jersey and in what condition Jonathan Tah, who has been struggling in the national team, will be. It cannot be ruled out that Bayern will concede their first home goal of the still young season…

HSV – Statistics & current form

While the 0-0 draw at Borussia Mönchengladbach in the opening game was considered a respectable result, the HSV pros were quickly brought back down to earth before the international break with a 0-2 home defeat in the Hamburg city derby against FC St. Pauli. Polzin’s team found no solutions in attack against their archrivals and made too many mistakes in defense. The defeat at the sold-out Volkspark was therefore entirely justified and confirmed what many experts had feared before the start of the season: fans with the diamond in their hearts will probably have to worry about staying up until the very end.

Is HSV even fit for the Bundesliga?

Unlike in the promotion season, when Hamburg’s coaching trio placed great emphasis on attacking early and boldly, the team is currently sitting deeper and trying to close down the opponent’s space. Instead of possession football, the focus is now almost exclusively on transition play. However, this approach has not worked as planned so far. Nevertheless, the Rothosen have no choice but to defend from a compact block at the Allianz Arena. However, if they are unable to relieve the pressure, it could be a long evening in Bavaria.

Although the Rothosen have been solid defensively so far, conceding only two goals, there could be a change in central defense. Luka Vuskovic, a new signing from Tottenham and brother of Mario, is pushing for a place in the starting lineup after some good training performances and is not without reason seen as a source of hope on the Elbe. The same applies to the two last-minute transfers from Arsenal FC, Lokonga and Vieira, who are expected to make an immediate impact at best.

Bayern – HSV Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Hamburger Sportverein has lost all of its last nine Bundesliga away games in Munich. Looking back at the last eight Bundesliga home games, FCB scored an incredible 50 (!) goals, averaging more than six per game. HSV scored just three goals at the Allianz Arena during the same period. The last two encounters in the German top flight ended 4-1 and 6-0 in Bayern’s favor. The highest-scoring match of this millennium was also between these two clubs. In March 2013, Munich won 9-2 against HSV on a Saturday evening. It was one of only two Saturday top matches between FCB and Hamburg to date.

Bayern – HSV Tip

For Vincent Kompany, the match against Hamburger SV is a trip down memory lane. For statistics enthusiasts, it is a clash of extremes. On the one hand, there are the Hanseatic League team, who have the lowest xG value so far, have had the fewest shots on goal and have not yet created a single big chance. On the other hand, there is Bayern, the strongest offensive team, which ranks first in each of the three categories mentioned. Any questions?

For the traditional Bayern vs. HSV match, I recommend betting on the favorite to lead by at least two goals at halftime. The difference in quality between the two teams is too stark. The first weeks of the season have been too different. In addition, away trips to Munich have rarely been successful for the Rothosen in the past. Merkur Bets is offering odds of 2.17.