What match plan will Urs Fischer bring to Munich?
Urs Fischer is back in the Bundesliga. His third competitive game as FSV coach will take place under extremely challenging conditions, which will take their toll in our Bayern vs. Mainz prediction. Both teams played a game in European competition during the week.
We expect the German record champions to be fresher in the Bayern vs. Mainz prediction. While Munich already secured a comfortable 3-1 home win against Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League on Wednesday, Mainz had a much tougher task to overcome.
The bottom team in the Bundesliga visited Lech Posen and, despite being a man down for 25 minutes, fought their way to a respectable 1-1 draw – a morale-boosting victory, according to Fischer. Nevertheless, there was a cost. Mainz had one day less to recover than FCB and, in addition, a squad for whom the triple burden is something completely new.
Urs Fischer is known for his focus on defensive play. This was already evident in the first training session, when he had his new team run laps around the field in a dry run. The 59-year-old wants to remind them of the basics and stabilize one of the most vulnerable defenses in the German top flight (24 goals conceded).
Bayern vs. Mainz AI prediction
When Munich fans make their way home after watching their beloved team play, they regularly wax lyrical. The German record champions have played seven Bundesliga matches at the Allianz Arena this season, winning by an average score of 4.14:0.57. Based on these figures, our artificial intelligence’s Bayern vs. Mainz prediction suggests a clear victory for the hosts.
Bayern – Statistics & current form
No Bundesliga team likes to look at the fixture list and see an away game at the Allianz Arena. The Munich team are dominating this year’s Bundesliga season at will, but they are particularly adept at picking apart opposing defenses in their own stadium.
Top scorer Harry Kane (17 in 13 games) and his teammates have scored 29 goals in seven Bundesliga home games this season. Munich have won ten of their first 13 appearances in the German top flight by at least two goals.
In our Bayern vs. Mainz prediction, we even think a win by three or more goals for the league leaders is possible. That’s no surprise, considering their previous performances. FCB have won nine of 13 matches by three or more goals.
No mercy
Shortly before the end of the year, we take another look at some historical data. Bayern has scored at least two goals in its last 21 Bundesliga matches – a new record. Another new record is the 49 goals scored by one team after 13 rounds of play.
Added to this is a sensational streak that has been going on since 1987: following a 1-3 defeat to Borussia Dortmund in November 1987, the German record champions have not lost their last Bundesliga home game of the season (30 wins, 7 draws).
Most recently, they have strung together twelve wins in their last Bundesliga home game of the year. The prospects for another victory are bright in our Bayern vs. Mainz prediction. Munich has scored the most expected goals (35.5 xG) and conceded the fewest expected goals (8.8 xGA).
Mainz – Statistics & current form
Experienced players must lead the way. That’s how the new FSV coach Urs Fischer recently explained his motto at a press conference. The 59-year-old followed up his statements with action. In goal, the injured Robin Zentner was not replaced by Lasse Rieß (24). Instead, the actual number three, Daniel Batz (34), took his place between the posts.
The goalkeeper did an outstanding job against both Gladbach (0-1) and Lech Poznan (1-1). In addition, Fischer stuck to his defensive formation with a back three. How successful this approach will be at the Allianz Arena remains to be seen.
There are likely to be few forays forward, which is also reflected in the odds between Bayern and Mainz. The FSV has rarely threatened the opponent’s goal this season. Eleven goals scored in the first 13 rounds are the lowest tally for the 05ers in 19 years and the second lowest in the club’s history.
They need to be more effective
So far, the bottom-of-the-table team has struggled in many areas. Under Bo Henriksen, the visitors already had a clear plan: press high, put massive pressure on the opponent, and play passionately for the win. The problem: points have been in short supply so far.
The FSV has won the most high balls in the league (122) – even more than Bayern (119). However, the German record champions were able to convert these ball wins into 23 shots. Mainz, on the other hand, only managed twelve shots after winning high balls.
In addition, they lack accuracy in front of goal, which is even more significant given the low number of opportunities. Urs Fischer coaches a team in Munich that has taken the fewest shots on the opponent’s goal (34) in the German top flight and also has the second-lowest shot conversion rate in the Bundesliga (7.69 percent).
Bayern – Mainz Head-to-head record / H2H record
Mainz have gone 24 Bundesliga games without keeping a clean sheet. That is unlikely to change against the most successful Bundesliga offense in history (49 goals after 13 games). The FSV has lost its last eight Bundesliga away games in a row at the Allianz Arena. Number nine awaits in the Bayern vs. Mainz prediction.
Bayern – Mainz tip
Vincent Kompany and his team are marching through the top German league with ease and maximum confidence. 37 points after 13 matchdays is the joint best tally in the club’s history (also in 2015/2016). The goal difference (+40) is also remarkable.
Up front, it’s not just experienced top players like Harry Kane (17 goals), Michael Olise (8 assists) and Luis Diaz (13 points) who are making their mark, but also highly talented youngsters like Lennart Karl. The 17-year-old has already collected four points in 393 minutes of play.
With all this offensive power, the defense is often overlooked. However, this does not do justice to the quality of the back line. Bayern allows the lowest average chance quality (0.07 xGA/shot) and has conceded the fewest shots on goal (24).
In addition, Bayern defends the opponent’s set pieces with flying colors (3.11 set-piece xGA – 3rd in the league) and has already pulled away from the competition by several points (8 points ahead of second-placed RB Leipzig). Accordingly, it is not surprising that the bookmakers’ odds between Bayern and Mainz paint such a clear picture.
