Will the impressive championship streak continue in the opening game?

Since 2002, there has been an official opening game in the Bundesliga in which the reigning champions are allowed to compete. In the previous 23 opening matches, the respective title holders have never lost. There have been 18 wins and five draws. FC Bayern has played 16 times, winning 13 and drawing the remaining three. For the visitors from the central city, however, it is their first ever opening game in Germany’s top flight. Before the kick-off between Bayern and RB Leipzig, the odds on a Munich win are significantly lower.

The record champions are not only overwhelming favorites going into the clash with the Saxons, they also have the upper hand. This is mainly because the Bayern vs. RB Leipzig prediction must take into account that the record champions started the new competitive year with a convincing victory in the Super Cup in Stuttgart. On the other hand, after an exciting summer transfer period, there is a big question mark over the performance capabilities of the Red Bulls, who did not really excel in their debut game in the DFB Cup.

As a result, in the run-up to Friday evening’s opening game between Bayern and RB Leipzig at the Allianz Arena, the odds on a home win are so low.

Bayern vs. RB Leipzig prediction AI

The betting basis supercomputer BETSiE is back for the new season with result simulations and AI tips. Ahead of the clash between Bayern and RB Leipzig, for example, the AI prediction is that a maximum of one team will score. Interestingly, the xG values are not more divergent in any other match than in the nominal top match of the first matchday in the Bundesliga. BETSiE therefore even sees value in the odds for a home win including a clean sheet. So my opinion and the AI assessment contradict each other. Who will be right in the end? Man or machine?

Bayern – Statistics & current form

It has been 24 (!) years since the reigning champions last suffered a defeat on the first matchday of the new Bundesliga season. Everything points to this remarkable run continuing on Friday evening. The defending champions have all the cards in their hands in their home game against last year’s seventh-placed team.

Will Kane and Diaz score again for Bayern?

Although Max Eberl and his team are still looking for reinforcements for the offense, the preparatory games went well. They celebrated three wins in three games against Lyon (2-1), Tottenham (4-0), and Grasshoppers from Zurich (2-1). Last Saturday, Munich finally prevailed 2-0 in the German Super Cup against cup winners VfB Stuttgart. Harry Kane scored the 1-0, and top new signing Luis Diaz scored the 2-0.

Anyone speculating that the current top scorer in England will once again put his team ahead with the first goal of the game in the Bundesliga opener can cash in on betting odds of up to 3.70 at Interwetten for Bayern or RB Leipzig.

Another positive note is that the team from Säbener Straße won 14 of their 17 home league games last season, scoring 53 goals. That’s more than three goals per game on average. However, Kompany’s team did not look 100% solid in defense in 2024/25. In the Club World Cup, they conceded at least one goal in four of their five games. Despite Jonathan Tah’s move to the Isar, I am therefore not averse to betting that Bayern will live up to their role as favorites at the start of the Bundesliga season and leave the pitch as winners, but not without conceding a goal.

RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form

RB Leipzig will enjoy the thrill of playing an opening Bundesliga game for the first time on Friday. The new RBL head coach Ole Werner has a little more experience in this regard, having faced Bayern with Werder Bremen at the Weserstadion in 2023 and been beaten 4-0.

Speaking of Werner, the successor to Löw and Rose faces a mammoth task, because after a disappointing season that ended with an early exit from the Champions League and a seventh-place finish in the German top flight, the club underwent some major changes in the summer. The departure of Benjamin Sesko to Manchester United is proving particularly painful. Lois Openda and Xavi Simons could follow suit…

How far has the new RB Leipzig come?

On the transfer front, however, the management team has not been idle either. Over 100 million euros has been invested in new players. The most prominent new signings are certainly Yohan Bakayoko, Max Finkgräfe, and Brazilian Romulo, who moved from Turkey to the central German city a few days ago. Basically, the energy drink empire has returned to its roots, signing young players to bring more dynamism to its game and put the RB playing philosophy to good use on the pitch. It will be interesting to see what the Saxons are capable of without the double burden.

During the preseason, it became clear that the offense is always good for goals. On the other hand, there were also defeats against Atalanta Bergamo (1-2) and RC Lens (1-2), which impressively demonstrate that defending remains the biggest weakness. These impressions were confirmed in last week’s cup match, when they secured a wild 4-2 victory against fourth-division side Sandhausen. Goals seem inevitable on Friday evening. Probably on both sides. But primarily for FCB. The Bayern vs. RB Leipzig prediction is therefore that the record champions will score at least once in each half.

Bayern – RB Leipzig Head-to-head record / H2H record

Including two Super Cup matches, Bayern and RB Leipzig have faced each other 22 times in competitive matches. Munich won half of these games. Eight draws and three defeats round off the head-to-head record. In the previous season, FCB thrashed the Bulls 5-1 in the first leg. In Leipzig, the eventual champions came back from a 0-2 half-time deficit to draw 3-3. Also exciting: in Bayern’s last five Bundesliga home games against Leipzig, both teams have always scored.

Bayern – RB Leipzig Tip

The long wait is finally over. The new Bundesliga season kicks off on Friday evening with the top match between Bayern and RB Leipzig. FCB are clear favorites going into the game, which has led various betting providers to come up with special bonus offers. On the one hand, there is the Merkur Bets Superboost for this match, and on the other, the Winamax 1000% boost. Both deals require the record champions to win, which seems highly likely on paper and based on recent performances.

For me, the main questions are how big a win will Munich get and whether the team from Saxony will also score? I answer the latter with “yes” and therefore recommend betting on a home win with both teams scoring between Bayern and RB Leipzig. NEO.bet is offering odds of 2.26 for this, which I am betting four out of a possible ten units on.