Will the Leões upset the German record champions?
On the second matchday of the Champions League group stage, Sporting Lisbon suffered a 2-1 defeat away to SSC Napoli. Since then, the Leões (English: the Lions) have not lost any of their last twelve competitive games (nine wins, three draws). This home game will therefore not be a walk in the park for FC Bayern Munich, although when betting on Bayern vs. Sporting Lisbon, it must be taken into account that the German record champions have not lost any of their four previous games against the Portuguese (three wins, one draw) .
Overall, the Verde e brancos (English: the Green and Whites) have won only one of their 17 European away games against Bundesliga teams (two draws, 14 defeats). Nevertheless, the Leões held Juventus Turin to a draw away from home in the Champions League, conceded only one goal in the Portuguese top match at Benfica at the weekend (1-1) and are currently eighth in the Champions League table, which cannot be ignored in the Bayern vs. Sporting Lisbon prediction.
In fact, the Portuguese have conceded only five goals in five Champions League group stage matches and have been very focused defensively. Despite all their dominance and offensive power, Bayern’s attack will first have to break down the Leões. While we are not ruling out a home win, we do not believe that the Reds will blow their guests away.
Bayern vs. Sporting Lisbon Prediction AI
AI also finds no value in the favorite tip due to the very low odds offered for tip 1 – but it does find value in the supposed underdog bet, because for Bayern vs. Sporting Lisbon, the AI prediction is aiming for the double chance X2, for which odds of 4.20 are offered in the Bet-at-home app. This implies a probability of 23.8 percent. However, AI calculates that Leões has a 29.2 percent chance of scoring at the Isar. This is significantly higher and is therefore a clear value tip from the perspective of artificial intelligence.
Bayern – Statistics & current form
Bayern goes into this match with a clear history: in the four previous UEFA Champions League matches against Sporting CP, the record champions remained undefeated (three wins, one draw). The last meeting dates back to the round of 16 in 2008/09. Back then, Bayern won 12-1 on aggregate (5-0 away, 7-1 at home), which remains the highest victory in a knockout round since 1992/93.
The team’s current home form in the Champions League also speaks in favor of Vincent Kompany’s side: Bayern are unbeaten in 36 home games in the league/group stage (34 wins, two draws). Their last defeat came twelve years ago in December 2013 against Manchester City. Since then, the Reds have only failed to score once, in a 0-0 draw with FC Copenhagen in November 2023. Accordingly, the odds are clearly in favor of the home side in Bayern’s match against Sporting Lisbon, with odds of just 1.25 available for a home win.
Bayern dominant in league despite Arsenal defeat
This season, FCB has led the competition longer than any other team: 71 percent of the playing time, or a total of 345:49 minutes. The only time they trailed (36:13 minutes) was during their recent defeat at Arsenal (1-3).
Individually, the focus remains on Harry Kane, who has scored 24 goals in 30 Champions League games for Bayern. Since his move to Munich, he shares the top spot with Kylian Mbappé. However, Kane has failed to score in his last two games. He has scored three times in a row for Bayern in the Champions League and has only failed to score twice so far. Another exciting fact: 17-year-old Lennart Karl has scored in his last two appearances. If he scores again against Sporting, he would be the youngest player in the history of the competition to score in three consecutive Champions League games at the age of 17 years and 290 days.
Sporting Lisbon – Statistics & current form
Sporting Lisbon are in good form, with their recent 1-1 draw at Benfica meaning they are unbeaten in twelve competitive games in a row (nine wins, three draws). However, their record against Bayern is bleak. In the last two encounters, the Portuguese conceded at least five goals each time. Since 1992/93, there has only been one instance of three consecutive games with at least five goals conceded against the same opponent: Arsenal against Bayern between 2015 and 2017 (1-5 each time).
A look at away games in Germany shows the challenge: in the last 17 away games against Bundesliga teams, there has been only one win (3-0 in Frankfurt in September 2022, plus two draws and 14 defeats). At least in their most recent away game in Germany, the Verde e brancos managed a 0-0 draw at Borussia Dortmund in February this year.
Sporting Lisbon with youthful ease
It is striking that Rui Borges has formed a very young squad. The average age of Sporting’s starting eleven in this Champions League season is 24 years and 163 days – the third youngest in the competition behind Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain; both of which, incidentally, are teams that Munich has already beaten in the current league phase. So it’s quite possible that the Leões will now also have to learn the hard way, because in Bayern vs. Sporting Lisbon, the odds are anything but favorable for the Verde e brancos to score points.
Top talent Geovany Quenda is on the verge of appearing on the shopping lists of even more top international clubs. The 18-year-old has already been involved in four goals in five games (two goals, two assists) – a record for a Portuguese teenager in a Champions League season. However, it remains to be seen whether he can also make waves on the Isar. What is clear is that the Portuguese, who have conceded only five goals in five games, will come to Munich with a clear defensive strategy.
Bayern – Sporting Lisbon Head-to-head record
Head to head: 3 – 1 – 0
The two teams have already faced each other twice in the Champions League. In the 2006/07 group stage, only one goal was scored in the two legs (0-0 H, 1:0 A), the German record champions swept Sporting Lisbon out of the stadium twice in the round of 16 in the 2008/09 season. A 5:0 away win in the Portuguese capital, after which the game was already over, was followed by a resounding 7:1 home win in what was the last meeting between the two sides to date.
Bayern – Sporting Lisbon Tip
Basically, our prediction for Bayern vs. Sporting Lisbon is a home win for Munich, but this does not promise any value, as the best bookmakers are setting the odds far too low for this. This is understandable, as FCB has not lost in 36 home games in the Champions League preliminary rounds (group and league phase) (34 wins, two draws) and has always scored, except in one home game against FC Copenhagen (0-0). Nevertheless, the Leões should not be underestimated, as they are in eighth place with ten out of a possible 15 points and have conceded only five goals.
We believe the Verde e brancos are capable of making life difficult for the German record champions with a focused defensive performance on the Isar and forcing FCB into a game of patience. Accordingly, the tip that Munich will score a maximum of two home goals is very popular, which conveniently does not categorically rule out the Leões gaining a point.
