Clear winner on the Isar?

The fifth matchday in the upper house of German soccer kicks off with a record-breaking game. Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen will face each other in the Bundesliga for the 117th time. No other pairing has been more frequent in the upper house of German soccer. The roles are clearly defined. The record champions have started the season with seven competitive wins for the first time since 2018/19, while the visitors from the Weser are only in 14th place with four points from their first four league games. Accordingly, there seems to be no alternative to betting on a Munich victory when Bayern face Werder Bremen.

Werder may have scored a resounding 4-0 victory in their last away game in Gladbach, but they have already suffered two heavy defeats in four matchdays, away in Frankfurt (1-4) and most recently at home against Freiburg (0-3). Add to that the three goals conceded against Leverkusen (3-3), and SVW currently has the second most vulnerable defense in the Bundesliga (10 goals conceded) behind Union Berlin (11). Accordingly, the prediction for Bayern vs. Werder Bremen is that Munich will win by at least three goals against the Green-Whites on Friday evening. We therefore recommend a handicap of -2 on the record champions.

Nevertheless, it should be noted that only Bayern themselves have celebrated more away wins in the Bundesliga since the start of the 2023/24 season (13) than SV Werder Bremen (10), who are one of the strongest away teams in the top flight of German soccer. The aforementioned 1-4 defeat in Frankfurt was the only defeat for the Green-Whites in their last eight Bundesliga away games (five wins, two draws). Against this backdrop, those who would rather not rule out a result in the three-way system and refrain from handicap bets on Munich can alternatively bet on a high-scoring match.

Bayern vs. Werder Bremen Prediction AI

Supercomputer BETSiE finds remarkable value in betting on the underdog in this match, which is due to the very high odds offered by the best bookmakers for tip 2. The 26.00 offered by LeoVegas for a Bremen away win implies a probability of just 3.8 percent. However, the AI gives SVW an 8.2 percent chance of taking all three points on the Isar.

According to the AI, it becomes even more lucrative to bet on a maximum of four goals at the Allianz Arena. The Bet-at-home app offers odds of 1.78 for this, suggesting a probability of 56.2 percent. AI lady BETSiE, on the other hand, predicts a 67.7 percent probability of under 4.5 goals, which represents even greater value.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

It is the 117th Bundesliga duel between Bayern and Werder – no other game has been played more often, which also means that FCB has suffered a historic number of defeats against Bremen (27; only against Borussia Mönchengladbach more with 28). Nevertheless, the record champions have lost only one of their last 31 duels – a 0-1 defeat at home in January 2024.

The start of the season is setting records: for the first time in seven years, Bayern won the first seven competitive games of a season (previously in 2018/19 under Niko Kovac). Eight opening wins were last achieved in 2016/17 under Carlo Ancelotti. Added to this is historic offensive power: 18 goals in the first four Bundesliga games – more than any team has ever scored after four games. Accordingly, the odds for Bayern against Werder Bremen are clearly in favor of the home side, with Bet-at-home rating their victory at just 1.11.

Kane, Kane, and Kane again

Harry Kane has been directly involved in eleven goals (eight goals, three assists) in the first four matchdays. That is the best record since 2004/05. The Brit could break the 100-goal mark (currently 98) in his 104th Bayern appearance and is the first player to convert all of his first 17 Bundesliga penalties (record series; previously only Jörg Butt and Robert Lewandowski with 17 in a row).

Serge Gnabry has been directly involved in goals in five Bundesliga games in a row (four goals, two assists); only against 1. FC Köln has he been directly involved in more goals than against Werder (12 vs. 10). The team’s experience provides structure: Bayern’s starting eleven is on average 28 years and 335 days old – the oldest in the current Bundesliga season.

Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form

Werder Bremen arrives with momentum from away games: The 4-0 win in Mönchengladbach was their highest Bundesliga away win in five years. Overall, the Green-Whites have lost only one of their last eight Bundesliga away games (five wins, two draws). Since the start of the 2023/24 season, only Bayern have celebrated more away wins (13) than SVW (10).

Werder Bremen have been too vulnerable defensively so far

Bremen’s profile is clear: one of the youngest starting lineups in the league (average age 25 years and 46 days; only Eintracht Frankfurt is younger) faces the most experienced. At the same time, the defense is under pressure: ten goals conceded after four matchdays make Werder the second-weakest defense in the Bundesliga. Only Union Berlin (11) was more vulnerable. In fact, since the early 1980s, SVW has only conceded more goals after four Bundesliga games in 2016/17 (14).

Meanwhile, Horst Steffen is under observation on the sidelines. Four points from the first four Bundesliga games is Bremen’s weakest start this millennium. The last time they scored fewer points was in 1998 under Felix Magath (3). The task in Munich is therefore clear: confirm their strength away from home, reduce the number of goals conceded, and assert the young team’s own development against the routine of the record champions.

Bayern – Werder Bremen Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 74 – 26 – 30

The Bundesliga record match has already taken place 130 times across all competitions, and FC Bayern Munich leads the head-to-head record very clearly with 74 wins. Just last season, Munich took all six points against the Green-Whites with an 8-0 victory. However, in their penultimate away game at the Allianz Arena on January 21, 2024, SV Werder Bremen secured a 1-0 away win – the Weserelf’s first triumph against the record champions since September 2008.

Bayern – Werder Bremen Tip

The betting odds for Bayern against Werder Bremen are clearly and unmistakably in favor of the Reds, which is undoubtedly due to their confident start to the season with seven wins in a row. Harry Kane is also in impressive form and is currently scoring reliably for his team, which could also be a factor against Bremen’s defense, which has been very vulnerable so far. Only Union Berlin conceded more goals (11) than the Green-Whites (10) in the first four Bundesliga matchdays, with the latter conceding at least three goals in three of the four games.

Although Werder’s away form is quite impressive, we ultimately expect a high home win for Munich. We are therefore placing a handicap of -2 on the German record champions in our Bayern vs. Werder Bremen prediction and are betting that there will be at least a three-goal difference in favor of the Reds on the scoreboard at the end.