Who will win the duel of the disappointed?

Both Benfica Lisbon and Bayer 04 Leverkusen remained winless in the first three matchdays of the Champions League group stage. While the Encarnados lost all three games, the Werkself only picked up one point out of a possible nine. As things stand, both clubs would be eliminated, which is not what either side wants. This makes it all the more exciting to see which Benfica Lisbon vs. Leverkusen tip will come true and who will win this duel between two disappointed clubs.

The dress rehearsals were very different. While the Águias recorded a 3-0 win at Vitória on Saturday, the Werkself were crushed 3-0 on the Isar, even though FC Bayern rested three key offensive players in Kane, Olise, and Díaz. The slight tendency for Benfica Lisbon against Leverkusen is therefore to predict a win for the Encarnados, who, however, have lost all of their last five Champions League games, which is why we are moving away from the three-way system and instead betting on both teams to score.

José Mourinho is known for his defensive tactics. Not only do both teams need to turn the tide, but they have also been anything but solid in defense in the Champions League so far. The Águias have already conceded seven goals. The Rhinelanders have already conceded ten, which is why it makes sense to bet on over 2.5 goals at the Estádio da Luz. The odds for Benfica Lisbon vs. Leverkusen are 1.68 at Merkur Bets.

Benfica Lisbon vs. Leverkusen Prediction AI

While we see the Encarnados as slight favorites, the AI prediction for Benfica Lisbon vs. Leverkusen is for an away win for the Black and Reds. The AI, on the other hand, gives the Werkself a 31.1 percent chance of winning, which is significantly higher and gives the supposed underdog tip plenty of value.

Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form

Benfica Lisbon has not lost any of its first ten league games at the national level, but with three draws, it is still only third behind Porto and city rival Sporting. However, things have been even more disappointing for José Mourinho’s team in the UEFA Champions League, where they have lost all three games. Overall, the Águias (English: the Eagles) have already suffered five consecutive defeats in the premier class. This is their longest losing streak in the Champions League in years.

In fact, 2025 is only the third calendar year with at least six European Cup defeats (after 2017 and 2008). This season, the Encarnados are one of two teams with three defeats already (alongside Ajax Amsterdam). If Benfica Lisbon’s tip 2 against Leverkusen comes true, as suggested by AI, the traditional club would start a Champions League season with four consecutive defeats for the third time after 2017/18 and 2023/24.

Will Vangelis Pavlidis strike again at home?

The turnaround is now to be forced by Vangelis Pavlidis, among others, who has scored five times in his last four Champions League appearances at Estádio da Luz and has been directly involved in 67 percent of Benfica’s nine CL home goals in 2025 (five goals, one assist).

Against a Werkself side that has recently been vulnerable in the opponent’s build-up play and against whom only one of six international competitive games has been lost (two wins, three draws), the aim is to immediately flip the switch again in order to keep their chances of reaching the knockout stages alive.

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

Things have returned to normal at Bayer 04 Leverkusen under Kasper Hjulmand following the misunderstanding that was Erik ten Hag. Nevertheless, there are still some warning signs under the new coach. In addition to the embarrassing 7-2 defeat at Paris Saint-Germain, the recent 3-0 loss to Bayern Munich’s B team raised questions. The 7-2 defeat on the Seine was only the second European Cup game in which they conceded seven goals (previously 7-1 in Barcelona in 2012). By way of comparison, Leverkusen conceded the same number of goals in the entire league phase of the previous season.

Noteworthy: Against the Black and Reds, there were the most “build-up attacks” of the 2025/26 season (20; eleven on matchday three, six on matchday two, three on matchday one). Only the opponents of Napoli (15.3 seconds) and Eintracht Frankfurt (14.9 seconds) played longer open sequences than those against Leverkusen (14.7 seconds).

Hjulmand and the Champions League have not been a good fit so far

Speaking of Kasper Hjulmand: Ten Hag’s successor just doesn’t seem to be cut out for the Champions League. The 53-year-old Dane is still winless after nine Champions League games (three draws, six losses). On average, he has conceded 3.6 goals per game. That is the highest figure among all coaches with at least nine CL games, so it is not surprising that the odds from the best betting providers are against the Black and Reds in Benfica Lisbon’s match against Leverkusen.

A ray of hope in possession: Aleix García played the most passes of any Leverkusen player (42) on matchday three and scored twice. That’s more than in his first twelve Champions League appearances combined. If the Rhinelanders can now significantly reduce their vulnerability to long sequences of play by their opponents, a point at the Estádio da Luz is at least not categorically out of the question.

Benfica Lisbon – Leverkusen Head-to-head record

Head to head: 2 – 3 – 1

Six international competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, with Benfica Lisbon leading the head-to-head record by a narrow margin with two wins. The two teams last met in the preliminary round of the 2014/15 Champions League. A 3-1 home win in Leverkusen, the Werkself’s only victory against the Portuguese side to date, was followed by a goalless draw at the Estádio da Luz in their most recent encounter.

Benfica Lisbon – Leverkusen Tip

Basically, our prediction for Benfica Lisbon against Leverkusen leans towards the Águias, although AI lady BETSiE again recommends a tip for an away win for the Werkself. In any case, there are too many factors at play for us to make a three-way prediction in this duel between two winless Champions League underachievers. Rather, we expect both teams to want to force a turnaround, which could potentially lead to a high-scoring game at Estádio da Luz.

The tip that both teams will score at least one goal is very popular, especially since there was a lot of room for improvement defensively on both sides. For goals on both sides, Benfica Lisbon vs. Leverkusen betting odds of 1.57 are available, which we are betting on at Betano with five out of ten units.