Can the Ukrainians hold their own on the Bosporus?

The second qualifying round of the UEFA Europa League has produced a very prestigious clash between two heavyweights, Besiktas and Shakhtar Donetsk – we provide a tip for this interesting match in this article. It is clear that elimination and the associated relegation to the Conference League qualifiers would be a serious setback for both clubs.

Another interesting aspect is the coaching staff of the visitors, who have been under the guidance of Arda Turan since this summer. Turan not only played 169 competitive games for Besiktas’ city rivals Galatasaray, but also led Eyüpspor to the Süper Lig, where they are now well established. The 38-year-old knows the league like the back of his hand and should know what it takes to survive on the Bosporus, which certainly influences the prognosis for Besiktas against Shakhtar Donetsk.

While Besiktas Istanbul is facing its first competitive game of the 2025/26 season after some very mixed results in recent friendlies, Shakhtar Donetsk was already in action in the first qualifying round of the Europa League. The Ukrainians gave Finnish representatives Ilves Tampere no chance, winning 6-0 on aggregate and looking very solid defensively. These are qualities that they will now be looking to bring to the pitch in the Turkish capital.

Besiktas – Statistics & current form

After Besiktas Istanbul was overtaken by Samsunspor on the last matchday of last season and finished only fourth, the traditional club from the Bosporus is now starting the Europa League qualifiers with high ambitions. The declared goal is to reach the league phase. To do so, however, the team coached by Ole Gunnar Solskjær will have to improve significantly compared to their preseason preparations. So far, the results of the test matches have been extremely mixed.

In four games, there was only one win (2-0 against SKN St. Pölten). In addition, there was a draw at Admira Wacker (1-1) and a 2-3 defeat against Wolfsberger AC. The 1-2 defeat in the dress rehearsal against Slovakian second division side Petrzalka raised questions, although it should be noted that Solskjaer really did treat the test matches as such and tried out many different formations – most of them without success.

Will Besiktas regain its former home strength?

Now, however, it’s crunch time for the Kara Kartallar (Black Eagles), who have strengthened their squad well over the summer. Up front, Tammy Abraham, who joined from Roma for a transfer fee of €15 million, making him the most expensive signing in the club’s history, is expected to fill the boots of Ciro Immobile, who has left the club. But the big coup was undoubtedly the loan of two Benfica players, David Jurásek and Orkun Kökcü. The latter is a creative player who was born and raised in the Netherlands but has already played 41 games for the Turkish national team and was greeted with frenzy on the Bosporus.

However, it has to be said that things have not been going too well for the Eagles in recent international home games. They have lost five of their last eight European home games (two wins, one draw). At Bet-at-home, where a Bet-at-home voucher is currently being offered, the odds for Besiktas against Shakhtar Donetsk are 2.35 for a first-leg win for the Kara Kartallar, who are therefore only slight favorites going into their first competitive game of the 2025/26 season, for which players such as Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain have not even been nominated. This may also be a hint of further transfer activity in the coming weeks.

Predicted line-up for Besiktas:
Günok – Jurásek, Uduokhai, Topcu – Svensson – Al-Musrati, Hadziahmetovic – Muci, Kökcü, Rashica – Abraham

Shakhtar Donetsk – Statistics & current form

Shakhtar Donetsk – double winners in Ukraine in 2024 – had to settle for third place in the league this summer behind Dynamo Kiev and FK Oleksandriya. The fact that the Hirnyky (meaning “miners”) are still able to compete in the Europa League qualifiers is largely due to their successful defense of the cup title. Nevertheless, a new coach was needed, and Arda Turan was brought in. The 38-year-old, who controversially played for Galatasaray between 2000 and 2011 and between 2020 and 2022, most recently led Eyüpspor to the Süper Lig and a sensational sixth place finish in the final table.

Now the new head coach is returning directly to the Bosporus, where the team needs the best possible starting position. In the second leg, the Orange-Blacks will once again not have a real home game due to the global political situation. Instead, next Thursday’s match will be played on neutral ground in Krakow, Poland. So if Besiktas’ prediction of a first-leg defeat for Shakhtar Donetsk comes true, it could already be over.

Shakhtar Donetsk with a dry spell away from home

However, the Ukrainians have already proven their competitive mettle, having had to enter the Europa League qualifiers in the first round. There, they had no problems at all against Ilves Trampere (6-0 H, 0:0 A) – and, more importantly, two games in which the defense remained unbreached despite the fundamentally offensive playing style under Arda Turan.

Traditionally, the Hirnyky rely on a Brazilian contingent. Defender Marlon, signed from Los Angeles FC, fits in seamlessly here. However, the Kroty have struggled recently, especially away from home in Europe. The Orange and Blacks have not won any of their last six international away games (two draws, four defeats) and have failed to score in three of their last five away games.

Predicted line-up for Shakhtar Donetsk:
Riznyk – Henrique, Matviyenko, Bondar, Konoplia – Gomes – Kevin, Sudakov, Bondarenko, Alisson – Elias

Besiktas – Shakhtar Donetsk Head-to-head record / H2H record

There has never been an international competitive match between these two teams, who have only met in friendly matches. There is therefore no relevant head-to-head data that could influence our prediction for Besiktas vs Shakhtar Donetsk.

Besiktas – Shakhtar Donetsk Tip

The best bookmakers are favoring Besiktas against Shakhtar Donetsk. However, it is not considered unlikely that the Orange-Blacks, led by Arda Turan, will at least manage a draw on the Bosporus. It is striking that the Hirnyky have not won any of their last six European away games (two draws, four defeats). However, the Kara Kartallar have also struggled internationally at home in Istanbul, losing five of their last eight international home games (two wins, one draw).

In any case, we expect a match with few goals, in which a result such as 0-0 or 1-1 would probably be enough for the Turks, given that the second leg will be played on neutral ground in Poland. There is therefore a lot of value to be found in the combined tip on the double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals.

ODDSET is offering odds of 1.90 for Besiktas against Shakhtar Donetsk, which we are betting on with three out of ten units.