Will the Citizens crack in the second half?

If they didn’t have work to do, the Citizens could enjoy a nice short break in the fjord town north of the Arctic Circle. The weather forecast is promising: temperatures around freezing point with sunshine and little wind. But the Bodö/Glimt vs. Manchester City tip is about three points and not the weather.

Under normal circumstances, the English representatives should secure their fifth victory on the seventh matchday of the Champions League group stage. However, the Skyblues have not performed at their best ahead of our Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City prediction.

Pep Guardiola and his protégés lost the prestigious Manchester derby against the Red Devils (0-2) last weekend. It was a bitter blow to their title ambitions. The Citizens have been waiting for their first Premier League win since the beginning of the year (3D, 1L).

The hosts do not have to recover from a strenuous league routine. The national competition is on hiatus and the Yellow Horde is somewhere between duels with top European teams, vacation, and preparation for the Champions League matches.

The bookmakers are not alone in this assumption. Enthusiasm and attacking spirit are the hallmarks of the Norwegian Champions League participants, whose home games are played on artificial turf. Although the hosts have already played Juventus (2-3), Tottenham (2-2), and Borussia Dortmund (2-2), the Yellow Horde has celebrated at least one goal on five of the six matchdays of the league phase.

Bodö/Glimt vs. Manchester City Prediction AI

Our artificial intelligence also expects goals on the artificial turf in Norway. That would definitely be in line with the home team’s previous performances. Five of the Yellow Horde’s six Champions League games have seen goals from both sides and ended with four or more goals.

Bodö/Glimt – Statistics & current form

The success story of Knutsen’s team continues to inspire. Bodö/Glimt only returned to the top Norwegian division in 2017 – and finished a surprise second in 2019. Since 2018, head coach Kjetil Knutsen has been a constant companion of “Blitz” and demands technically appealing combination football – often combined with high pressing.

No one is quick to instill fear in last year’s Europa League semi-finalists. They play against big-name clubs as well as smaller clubs in everyday league play. The Yellow Horde has already taken many a club by surprise in the Champions League group stage.

Although the hosts are still waiting for their first Champions League win of the season (3D, 3L), their performances have already impressed several experts. Against Slavia Prague (2-2), Tottenham (2-2), and Borussia Dortmund (2-2), the reigning Norwegian runners-up scored points despite conceding two goals in each game. In the Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City tip, Knutsen’s protégés actually need a win to have any hope of surviving in European competition on the final matchday.

Finishing in the right areas important for Bodø/Glimt

So far, “Blitz” has not finished a single matchday in the CL league phase without first creating scoring chances worth at least 1.4 expected goals. In their first two matches against Slavia Prague (2-2) and Tottenham (2-2), the Scandinavians even managed 2.5 expected goals in each game.

A good argument for the hosts to score in our Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City prediction is their often good positioning before shots. Knutsen’s team averages 0.14 expected goals per shot – a top-6 value among all CL participants.

A comparison with the Citizens (0.11 xG/shot) shows how difficult it is to consistently create high-quality scoring chances in Europe’s top competition. Overall, last year’s Europa League semifinalists have finished four of six matches in this year’s Champions League with at least two goals of their own.

Manchester City – Statistics & current form

Pep Guardiola has shown courage and adapted his team’s style of play to the changed conditions in top European football. Transfers such as that of Antoine Semenyo underline the increased desire for additional physicality in the team.

The pace of the Sky Blues’ combination play has increased since the start of the season – as has the risk of counterattacks by their opponents. In addition, there are significantly higher numbers of intense runs. This, combined with the tightly packed schedule, places enormous demands on the City pros and has its price. In the Bodö/Glimt – Manchester City tip, the Spanish coach will have to do without several players.

Guardiola is lamenting several absences, especially in the back line. Josko Gvardiol, Ruben Dias, and perhaps John Stones will not be playing north of the Arctic Circle. In addition, captain Bernardo Silva is serving a yellow card suspension, which will force him to watch from the stands.

Slumps in the second half

For the most part, the Skyblues have dominated their games in the current Champions League season. Erling Haaland has played in his beloved role as a prolific striker, scoring half of City’s goals (6/12). Only in the match against Leverkusen (0-2) did the English representatives finish with less than two goals of their own.

The offensive department often does its job and should also be able to score against the weakest expected defense in the current Champions League season (Bodö/Glimt: 17.22 xGA). However, the longer the match lasts, the greater the risk of conceding goals.

Across all competitions, Guardiola’s team conceded almost twice as many expected goals (0.58 xGA) after the break as in the first half (0.33 xGA). In the Premier League, Guardiola’s team had the second-best expected defense in the first half before the Manchester derby, but ranked only eleventh after the break.

Bodö/Glimt – Manchester City Head-to-head record

We can search long and hard for direct comparisons in the run-up to this match, but we won’t find a single encounter. Bodö/Glimt have already played at least one game against a team from the top English league this season and prevented a defeat (2-2 vs. Tottenham).

Bodö/Glimt – Manchester City Tip

So far, the Yellow Horde has played three home games in the current Champions League season. The number of attacks the Norwegian representative has been able to mount at home is remarkable. Bodö/Glimt has taken at least 17 shots in all three CL home games!

These led to scoring chances worth 1.7 expected goals or more. On the other hand, however, it became clear how difficult it was for Knutsen’s team to defend against top European teams. The men from the fjord city conceded at least 3.2 expected goals in four of six CL games.

Manchester City may not be in the best form, but overall they are having a much better season than last year. Only four other clubs (Bayern, PSG, Liverpool, and Real Madrid) have had more shots on goal than the Skyblues (47) in the current competition. In addition, no other team in the Champions League has touched the ball more often in the opponent’s penalty area (225).