Will Bolivia still make it to the playoffs?
The situation ahead of the final matchday in the South American World Cup qualifiers is quickly explained. The six direct tickets for the 2026 World Cup have already been allocated. In a long-distance duel, only the seventh place, which qualifies for the intercontinental playoffs, remains to be decided. Venezuela has all the trump cards in its own hands and is currently one point ahead of Bolivia in the standings.
While Venezuela faces Colombia at home, Bolivia welcomes Brazil to its own stadium at the same time. A home win is essential for Bolivia against Brazil, because even a draw – assuming Venezuela loses – would not be enough to climb from eighth to seventh place due to the inferior goal difference.
Incidentally, such a scenario is not out of the question for two reasons. On the one hand, the visitors from Brazil are only playing for the infamous “golden pineapple.” On the other hand, the match will take place in South America’s most controversial stadium. We are talking about the El Alto Municipal Stadium, located in the country’s second-largest city at an altitude of over 4,000 meters. The thin air poses a considerable problem for all visiting teams and prevents almost all players who are not used to these conditions from performing at their best on the pitch.
It is no coincidence that “La Verde” has collected 14 of its 17 points at home in the course of this qualification. The record of four wins, two draws, and only two defeats is absolutely impressive. Nevertheless, I’m not going to take the risk of predicting a home win between Bolivia and Brazil. For me, it remains to be seen how the world number 78 will cope with the pressure of having to win. In addition, the fundamental quality advantages logically lie with coach Carlo Ancelotti’s “Selecao.”
Apart from that, it must be said that the Italian head coach has obviously made the right adjustments to the record world champions so far. In three competitive games, the men from the Sugar Loaf Mountain celebrated two wins and one draw. They have not lost a game or conceded a goal so far. Last week, they comfortably beat Chile 3-0 at home. By comparison, Bolivia lost their away game in Colombia 3-0, missing out on the chance to secure a better starting position for the final showdown.
In general, I wonder whether it is justified to offer odds of 2.30 for an away win between Bolivia and Brazil just because the game is being played at an altitude of 4,100 meters and only one of the two teams still has something at stake. For me, the answer to this question is “no,” and I therefore see value in the three-way odds on the “Selecao.”
Bolivia – Brazil Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The head-to-head comparison also paints a clear picture in favor of the Brazilians. The five-time world champions have won 24 of 33 encounters. The “little canaries” have also won eleven of 18 World Cup qualifying matches. The first leg was also a clear-cut affair, with Brazil winning 5-1. Looking back at the last five direct duels, the favorites have won four and drawn one. They conceded only one goal in the process. The Brazilians themselves scored 19 (!) goals, at least four in four of the five matches.
Bolivia – Brazil Tip
The last matchday in CONMBEOL qualifying brings with it an exciting scenario. Either Venezuela or Bolivia can still dream of World Cup participation on Wednesday. If Venezuela wins at home against Colombia, the train will have left the station for the Bolivians.
But of course, they want to do their homework and get three points against Brazil themselves. The distribution of the Bolivia vs. Brazil betting odds shows that this is no ordinary soccer game, especially as it is being played at the altitude of El Alto, but I don’t believe that the underdogs will be able to withstand the pressure and inflict Ancelotti’s first defeat as Selecao coach.
Instead, I’m speculating on at least one point for the visitors and combining the double chance X2 with a maximum of three goals in the game. Why? Because Brazil has not conceded a goal under Ancelotti, but is unlikely to set off any offensive fireworks either. The X2 & Under 3.5 is paying 1.85 as the top odds at Admiralbet.
