Showtime at the Maracana!
Not only in Europe, but also in other parts of the world, qualifying matches for the 2026 World Cup finals will take place this coming weekend. Traditionally, the South American World Cup qualifiers started well before the European ones, which is why the penultimate group match day in South America is already approaching. Of course, in our Brazil vs. Chile tip, we have taken into account that the five-time world champions’ last home qualifying game will practically be a friendly match.
Before the final two qualifying matches, the Seleçao has a seven-point lead over seventh-placed Venezuela, which currently occupies the relegation spot. Brazil’s direct qualification for the upcoming mammoth World Cup on the neighboring continent is therefore already certain ahead of the Brazil vs. Chile prediction. The situation is quite different for their upcoming opponents, however.
As the bottom team in the South American Conmebol qualifying group and seven points behind the only relegation spot in South America, Nicolás Córdova’s team – who will make his debut as national coach this Thursday – can already write off World Cup qualification.
Brazil – Chile Head-to-head record / H2H record
The two nations have faced each other 76 times in total, with the Seleçao clearly dominating the record with 54 wins. Chile has only won eight times, and there have been 14 draws in this contest. The Chileans have never even managed to beat the five-time world champions on Brazilian soil.
Brazil – Chile Tip
The proud Brazilian soccer soul has been battered in recent years. In the last two major tournaments, the 2022 World Cup and last year’s Copa America, the Seleçao were knocked out early on. Their performances in this World Cup qualifier have also been rather poor, and in some cases even embarrassing, as was recently the case in their painful 1-4 defeat to archrivals Argentina.
Of course, the Brazilian team benefits from the fact that six teams from the South American qualifying group will qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup, which is set to be a mammoth event. If it were only four teams, as has been the case up to now, Brazil would still have to worry about qualifying for the World Cup. Ultimately, however, there is little at stake in our Brazil vs. Chile prediction.
Despite all the shortcomings in Carlo Ancelotti’s team, who began his difficult mission with the five-time world champions in May this year, Brazil has a brilliant lineup, especially in attack. Ancelotti’s task will be to bring together the many highly talented individuals to form a functioning team. In the ultimately meaningless penultimate group game, he could try out a few experiments. In addition, players such as Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo, and Neymar were not even nominated and were rested so that new players could be introduced. However, given the weakness of the opponent, the tip for a home win should still hold true for Brazil vs. Chile.
Despite Brazil’s defensive problems and the friendly nature of this match, we don’t believe the whipping boys of the South American World Cup qualifiers will score in this difficult away game at the Maracana. Chile have failed to get off the ground in this World Cup qualifier so far. In eight games, they have managed just one draw and one goal.
That’s why we ultimately don’t give the underdogs much of a chance in our Brazil vs. Chile prediction. Chile has never won a game on Brazilian soil. In the first leg, they suffered a narrow defeat at home against the Brazilian team, with the final score 1-2. It remains to be seen how much Brazil will ultimately invest in this game, which is meaningless for the Seleçao.
However, Ancelotti has little time left with his new team before the World Cup, so it is to be expected that the Brazilians will still take the game seriously. The Chilean team’s performances in 2025 have been better than last year, so the victory could be closer than expected. Chile celebrated big home wins against Venezuela and Panama. In their last away games, Nicolás Córdova’s team, which was still coached by his predecessor Ricardo Gareca at the time, lost by only a narrow margin.
As Chile also failed to score away from home, their last away games were not particularly spectacular. We do not expect Córdova’s debut to fundamentally change Chile’s weak offense. Brazil has also struggled to score goals recently, despite its high-caliber offense. That’s why we see potential for a home win with less than four goals scored in the game.
