Will the Spurs overtake the Bees?
On New Year’s Day, there will be a reunion in a London derby when Spurs coach Thomas Frank returns to his old stomping ground with his new employer. The Dane was part of the Bees’ coaching staff from 2016 to 2025 (initially as assistant coach from 2016 to 2018, then as head coach) and is now returning to west London for the first time.
If Brentford beat Tottenham, Frank and his new team would move ahead of the Bees, who currently have one point more than Spurs. For the reigning Europa League champions, who are still searching for consistency domestically, this would be a great opportunity to return to the top half of the table.
There is a lot to be said for the Lilywhites, who are not only unbeaten in their last four away games at Brentford Community Stadium (one win, three draws), but also currently top the Premier League away table. However, the Bees are also strong at home. Only Arsenal (25), Manchester City (24), and Aston Villa (22) have picked up more points at home than Brentford (20) in 2025/26, which is why we are steering clear of the three-way system. Meanwhile, there are many indications that this will be a high-scoring match, so betting on over 2.5 goals is an alternative with plenty of value.
Not only have the Bees been extremely prolific in front of their home crowd, scoring 20 goals (third best in the Premier League), but they have also conceded ten goals in nine Premier League home games. In contrast, Spurs, who have won five of their nine Premier League away games (two draws, two defeats), have a goal difference of 16:12 on the road. It is therefore also very valid to bet on both teams scoring.
Brentford – Tottenham Head-to-head record
Head to head: 7 – 16 – 28
A total of 51 matches have been played between the two teams so far, with Tottenham Hotspur leading the head-to-head record with 28 wins. The Spurs have won all of their last four Premier League games against Brentford FC and have also remained unbeaten in their last four away games at Brentford Community Stadium (one win, three draws).
Brentford – Tottenham Tip
Our prediction for Brentford vs. Tottenham is slightly in favor of the visitors. However, the Bees are a real institution on their home turf. Brentford FC have lost only two of their last twelve Premier League home games (eight wins, two draws), with only Manchester City (eleven), Aston Villa (ten), and Arsenal (nine) recording more home wins in the top flight of English soccer during this period. Although the head-to-head record has recently favored the Lilywhites, who have won all of the last four London derbies against their city rivals, a home win for the Bees would not be entirely out of the question.
We would therefore like to keep all options open in the three-way system. Since, for the reasons described above, a high-scoring derby is to be expected on New Year’s Day, betting on over 2.5 goals is a very reasonable alternative with a correspondingly positive expected value.
