Will Chelsea keep pace with the leaders?
After the international break, Burnley and Chelsea kick off the 12th matchday of the Premier League. Chelsea are currently in third place and continue to fight for a Champions League spot. Burnley, on the other hand, are currently caught in a relegation battle with only ten points and are currently in 17th place.
At home, the Clarets have a fairly balanced record, winning two games, losing two and drawing one – the two defeats came against PL heavyweights Arsenal and Liverpool. In these five home games, they only conceded more than one goal against the current league leaders from London. In our Burnley vs. Chelsea prediction, we are therefore betting on under 1.5 goals for the Blues.
Burnley goes into the match with a poor recent record. The Clarets have lost four of their last six Premier League games, conceding at least two goals in five of those matches. In total, they have only managed two clean sheets in their last 31 league games, while conceding 64 goals during that period. However, they have only conceded four goals in five PL games at their home ground, Turf Moor Stadium, with no game seeing more than two goals scored.
Their offensive statistics are also worrying: In this Premier League season, Burnley has recorded the fewest shots, the lowest xG, the least possession, the most shots conceded, and the highest xGA. One small ray of hope is Zian Flemming, who has scored three goals in four starts. Historically, however, things rarely go well against Chelsea, with only one win in 18 Premier League matches.
Chelsea travels to Burnley in convincing form away from home. The Blues have won their last two Premier League away games without conceding a goal and could record three consecutive away wins without conceding for the first time since November 2021. The Burnley vs. Chelsea betting odds for a third consecutive clean sheet are 2.29. Particularly noteworthy is their historical dominance at Burnley: Chelsea have won eight of their nine Premier League away games there and have scored at least three goals in each of their last six.
The team also performs well in early Saturday games, having won all of their last seven matches in the 12:30 p.m. slot. João Pedro has scored in the last two games in a row, but has never scored against Burnley. In addition, Alejandro Garnacho is close to making his 100th Premier League appearance, which would make him the youngest South American to reach this milestone. We would not commit to a goalscorer in this game.
Burnley – Chelsea Head-to-head record / H2H record
Burnley and Chelsea have met 83 times in previous head-to-head matches, 82 of which were in the Premier League and one in the League Cup. Burnley won 33 of these matches.
19 matches ended in a draw, while Chelsea won 31 times. The goal difference is almost even: Burnley scored a total of 131 goals, while Chelsea scored 126.
Burnley – Chelsea Tip
Chelsea FC are the clear favorites going into this game, having won three of their last four matches. Maresca’s team are unbeaten in five away games, winning four of them.
The Blues have a particularly good record against Burnley, losing only one of their last 18 Premier League encounters and scoring at least three goals in the last six. In addition, the Londoners seem to feel very comfortable on Saturday afternoons, winning their last seven games at 12:30 p.m.
At home this PL season, however, the Clarets’ defense seems to have improved, conceding only four goals in their first five home games, with only Arsenal scoring twice. Otherwise, there is not much going for Burnley at the moment: they have lost seven of their eleven Premier League games and are 17th in the table – conceding at least two goals in each of their last three games.
