Will the home team surprisingly end their winless streak?
A relatively favorable stretch in the schedule has recently done the SSC good. Head coach Antonio Conte’s team racked up consecutive wins against Hellas Verona (2-1), Torino FC (2-1), and Lecce (2-1)—all of whom were in the bottom third of the table. That’s also where the hosts in our Cagliari vs. Napoli tip are situated.
The club is based on the Italian island of Sardinia—a beautiful place for a vacation, but an unpleasant destination for an away game. In the Cagliari vs. Napoli prediction, the Partenopei wouldn’t be the first top Italian team to slip up against Fabio Pisacane’s side.
In our view, the value of this bet diminishes further when considering the defending champions’ away record. Away from their home ground, the Gli Azzurri have lost six of 15 matches and won just over half of their away games (8/15).
SSC has often struggled with their goal-scoring output on the road. Napoli scored only 20 goals in 15 away matches and finished 47 percent of their away trips with fewer than one goal scored. On average, the Partenopei’s traveling fans celebrated just 1.33 goals per away game.
Cagliari – Napoli Head-to-Head Record
This marks the third meeting between these two Italian Serie A clubs this season. SSC did not have it easy in the two previous encounters. Napoli narrowly won the first-leg match 1-0.
In early December, an intense battle of attrition followed in the Coppa Italia. The Partenopei took the lead in the first half, but conceded the equalizer after the break and had to advance to the quarterfinals via a penalty shootout.
Cagliari – Napoli Prediction
Elia Caprile stands between the posts for the Pisacane squad. The summer signing is one of the better goalkeepers this season, having prevented 4.1 expected goals (6th) and already rattled the nerves of many top strikers, especially at home.
His teammates are keen on quick transitions. 46 direct attacks is a slightly above-average figure in Serie A. However, only Hellas Verona (6) has scored more goals following a direct attack so far.
Antonio Conte’s team must brace for a complicated match. We expect similar difficulties for SSC as in the two previous meetings this season. It’s even possible that the defending champions will go another away game without a win. If the visitors fail, it will be because of their offense. 39.72 expected goals ranks them only seventh in the league.
