No defeat for the Dutch?

The hosts from the island started the new edition of the Champions League with a defeat against Bayern, but they made up for their opening defeat with a subsequent home win against Benfica Lisbon.

The visitors, on the other hand, have yet to prove that they deserve to be in the competition. After two defeats against Inter Milan and Marseille, the Dutch are still waiting for their first points. Worse still, the country’s record champions have not scored a single goal so far.

Coach John Heitinga has thus ended his first two games as a coach in the Champions League with a defeat and is the first Ajax coach ever to do so. On top of that, Heitinga has now lost his first two games in this competition with the same club, both as a player and as a coach.

Chelsea vs. Ajax Amsterdam Prediction AI

Our artificial intelligence has also analyzed the match at Stamford Bridge and found value in the odds for an away win, including an Asian handicap of +2.25 goals for the visitors. The AI Champions League prediction is based on the AI estimating the difference in expected goals to be 1.51 in favor of the Londoners.

Chelsea – Statistics & current form

Chelsea coach Enzo Maresca celebrated the Club World Cup title with his team in the summer, and from the capital club’s point of view, winning the Champions League should follow. The home side’s excellent squad is certainly capable of achieving this task, and they recently beat the champions from Liverpool in the domestic Premier League.

However, the personnel situation in attack is currently tense: Cole Palmer, a powerful striker, is injured, and his equally dangerous teammate in attack, Brazilian Joao Pedro, is suspended due to a red card in the last Champions League match against Benfica.

Liam Delap can also be added to the list of absentees. The striker was signed in the summer for €35 million from Premier League relegation side Ipswich Town, where the 22-year-old had played very strongly, scoring a dozen goals.

No landslide victory for the Londoners?

In light of this, we also see sufficient value in the Chelsea vs. Ajax Amsterdam odds for an away win for the Dutch, including a handicap of plus 1.5 goals for them. This is also supported by the fact that the Stamford Bridge side won their last home game in the Champions League against Benfica, but only narrowly by 1-0.

Chelsea is still counting on its home advantage: no more than two of the last twelve Champions League games at Stamford Bridge have been lost (9-1-2). Both defeats came against Real Madrid in the respective quarterfinals of the 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons. The Blues have also remained unbeaten in their last twelve home group games (8-4-0) since a win against Valencia in September 2019.

Ajax Amsterdam – Statistics & current form

Ajax have suffered just one defeat in nine rounds of matches in the domestic Eredivisie. However, the record sounds better than it is.

After all, four of the nine games played in the current edition of the Dutch top flight have ended in draws, and the flood of draws means that they are only fourth in the table despite everything. All four draws were recorded away from home, which is why they are still waiting for their first away win of the season.

Oscar Gloukh is in good form in attack. The Israeli has scored in three of the last four league games and his signing from RB Salzburg before the season seems to be paying off. Gloukh also impressed with the Mozart city club, contributing to 32 goals in the last two Bundesliga seasons.

Will the Israeli strike again for Ajax?

Given his current strong form, the betting odds on another goal by the 21-year-old are also recommended in the match between Chelsea and Ajax Amsterdam.

The prediction is also supported by the declining performance of the hosts’ defense in front of their own fans. After two clean sheets in front of their own fans at the start of the domestic Premier League season, the hosts conceded four goals in their next two home league games.

In light of this development, the Israeli should have no shortage of scoring opportunities. From a collective perspective, however, the visitors have room for improvement on the European stage: Since Mohammed Kudus scored against Liverpool in September 2022, they have not scored a single goal in their last five Europa League and Champions League games!

Chelsea – Ajax Amsterdam Head-to-head record

The British and Dutch runners-up have already faced each other once in the group stage of the Champions League in the 2019/20 season. At that time, CFC won 1-0 away and recorded a high-scoring 4-4 draw in front of their own fans against the 36-time Dutch champions.

Ajax has been on top since a 1-0 win against Tottenham in April 2019, but has been winless (0-2-9) in its last eleven European games against English teams. For the upcoming match between Chelsea and Ajax Amsterdam, the bookmakers’ odds now clearly favor the home team to win.

Chelsea – Ajax Amsterdam Tip

For the clash between Chelsea and Ajax Amsterdam, the tip is for a maximum of two goals by the hosts. Admittedly, the Dutch are traveling with a shaky defense.

They conceded an average of three goals in the first two rounds of the competition, exceeding their expected goals against value by 3.6 goals – the worst record of any team in the Champions League. However, due to several absences in the British team’s offense, we do not expect another heavy defeat for coach John Heitinga’s team.

This prediction is backed up by the British team’s mediocre performances in the Champions League from an offensive perspective. In their opening game, Chelsea only managed one goal in their defeat to Bayern Munich, scored by striker Cole Palmer, who is now injured.

The following meager 1-0 home win against Benfica was again only due to an own goal by their opponents from the Portuguese league. Chelsea’s offense has not yet reached operating temperature in the competition, and the situation has not improved due to the aforementioned absences.

Just how harmless the CFC offense is can be seen in the low expected goals value of 1.7 after two rounds of play. Only four teams in the Champions League have a lower yield! From this perspective, too, the Chelsea vs. Ajax Amsterdam prediction is based on no more than two goals from the Londoners.