Will Morgan Rogers score twice again?
Data has changed the way we look at soccer over the past few years. More and more players, coaches, teams, and clubs are looking for high-percentage scoring opportunities that promise as many expected goals as possible. The principle is also familiar to the two clubs in our Chelsea vs. Aston Villa tip.
Long-range shots are among the attempts that promise relatively few expected goals. The volume of this type of shot has decreased accordingly. Only 7.8 shots from outside the box are taken per game in the English Premier League – the lowest figure since the 2003/2004 season. Nevertheless, long-range shots are an important factor in our Chelsea vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Between Christmas and New Year, bookmakers are faced with the task of setting Chelsea vs. Aston Villa betting odds for the match between two top-four teams in their betting apps. It’s not an easy challenge, yet the clear advantage the Blues have at their home stadium comes as no surprise.
A win for Enzo Maresca and his team often results in Chelsea vs. Aston Villa odds of less than 1.90. Wait a minute: aren’t we talking about the hottest Premier League team when it comes to the Blues’ opponents? The Villans have won eleven of their last twelve matches in the top English league, defeating Arsenal (2-1) among others.
Unai Emery and his team are the most positive example of the current PL season. After five matchdays, Emery’s entire construct was called into question – now the Villans are considered title contenders. Only seven points separate fourth-placed Chelsea (29) and Bournemouth (22) in 15th place. Never before have these two places been so close together at Christmas time.
The Blues (29), meanwhile, are seven points behind Aston Villa (36) – the team in the best form in the English top flight. The offense in particular has been brilliant recently, scoring at least twice in six of seven games.
Chelsea – Aston Villa Head-to-head record / H2H record
The record from the three previous meetings is evenly balanced. Both teams won their home games in the previous season. In addition, the two clubs shared the points (2-2) at Villa Park on matchday 35 of the 2023/2024 season.
Currently, every team on the island must be wary of the visitors’ momentum. The Villans have scored twice in four consecutive league games – three times during this period, Emery’s team faced a club that was ranked in the top six at the time of the match.
Chelsea – Aston Villa Tip
At the beginning of this preview, we mentioned long-range shots. The volume remains low, but there has been a massive increase in efficiency. 14.8 percent of goals this season have been scored from long range – that’s 0.42 goals per game, the highest rate in over a decade.
What is particularly striking is the enormous effectiveness. Shots from outside the penalty area have found the net 5.4 percent of the time this season – the highest rate ever recorded over an entire season is well below that (4.5 percent). This is directly relevant to the Chelsea vs. Aston Villa tip.
The visitors stand out in this category. Ranked third, the Villans have converted more long-range shots than any other team this season (10). Against the Blues, however, it could also work from inside the penalty area.
Chelsea concedes 0.13 expected goals per shot on target – one of the highest figures in the UK. Most recently, Maresca’s team has conceded at least 1.0 expected goals in four consecutive games. Two of these four matches even ended with at least 2.3 expected goals for the Blues.
