Can Chelsea stay at the top?

On Saturday, 26.04.2025, Chelsea FC and Everton FC will face each other in the English top flight. The roles seem to be clearly defined in advance, as the Blues are still fighting for a place in the Champions League, while the visitors find themselves somewhat aimlessly in mid-table in the Premier League. For this reason, the Chelsea vs. Everton odds from German bookmakers clearly favor a home win. But how likely is a home win in this match really?

We will address this question in our Chelsea vs. Everton prediction and take a closer look at both teams. We will start with the home and away records of the two teams and come up with an initial conclusion. The home side are difficult to beat at their own stadium, losing only two of their 16 home games. On the other hand, the visitors have won only four of their 16 away games and are therefore not particularly strong on the road. The first point of the analysis therefore goes to Chelsea.

A comparison of form paints a similar picture, but one that is not quite as clear-cut. The Blues are in very decent form, with 20 points from their last ten competitive games. FCE have only managed to collect twelve points in the same period, but they have only lost two games, against Liverpool and Manchester City. They also picked up points against Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, two heavyweights.

Chelsea – Statistics & current form

It is still too early to assess Chelsea’s season. Enzo Maresca’s team has picked up 57 points from 33 league games and is currently sixth in the English top flight. As things stand, the Blues would only qualify for the Europa League. However, there is still a chance of securing a place in the Champions League, as the home side are currently only two points behind Newcastle United (5th). A win against Everton would therefore be extremely important in the battle for the CL. Can Chelsea withstand the pressure or will their nerves get the better of them?

Chelsea with good goal tally

With 58 goals in 33 league games (Ø 1.76), the Blues are sixth in the league and have one of the best attacks in the Premier League. In addition, Enzo Maresca’s team has only failed to score six times, finding the net in 82% of their games. But it gets even better, because at home the rate is 94% (!) and is therefore almost perfect. In addition, the only goalless draw at Stamford Bridge was several months ago. Strictly speaking, the home side only failed to score in their home game against Manchester City on the first matchday. We therefore expect the home team to score.

Chelsea also very solid defensively

However, it’s not just the offense that’s going well, the defense is also very solid. With only 40 goals conceded in 33 games (Ø 1.21), the Blues have one of the best defenses in the league. In fact, only three teams have conceded fewer goals: Liverpool, Arsenal, and Nottingham Forest. Nevertheless, the home side have only kept eight clean sheets and have conceded at least one goal in 76% of their league games. At first glance, the probability of a clean sheet is therefore not particularly high. However, this was the case in the last two games against Everton, so a clean sheet cannot be completely ruled out.

Everton – Statistics & current form

Everton can actually be quite satisfied with their season so far, as David Moyes’ team is safely mid-table in the Premier League with 38 points from 33 games. Things looked very different in the first half of the season, as the Toffees were still in serious danger of relegation until shortly after the winter break. However, the visitors now have 17 points more than Ipswich and are therefore safe from relegation. In the coming weeks, the visitors will therefore only be playing for the best possible position. Realistically, FCE will finish the 24/25 season between 13th and 17th place. So does the team lack a goal ahead of this match?

Everton is mostly harmless

In a league-wide comparison, the Toffees’ offense is only in 17th place with 34 goals in 33 games (Ø 1.03), making it one of the weakest attacks in the league. Strictly speaking, only the three relegated teams, Southampton, Leicester, and Ipswich, have scored less often. It is therefore no surprise that David Moyes’ team has failed to score in 14 games and has only found the back of the net in 58% of its league games. Away from home, the rate is even worse at 56%. However, things have looked different recently, with FCE fans celebrating a goal in five of their last six away games.

Everton defensively at the top level

With only 40 goals conceded in 33 PL games (average 1.21), the visitors have one of the best defenses in the Premier League. In fact, only three teams have conceded fewer goals: Liverpool, Arsenal, and Nottingham Forest. In addition, David Moyes’ team has kept a clean sheet ten times, conceding a goal in only 70% of their league games. It is therefore no surprise that the Toffees were able to keep a clean sheet against Chelsea in the first half of the season. However, we doubt that they will be able to do the same at Stamford Bridge in London. Especially since the visitors have nothing to play for.

Chelsea – Everton Head-to-head / H2H record

In the first two sections of our analysis, the home side seem to have the upper hand, but how do they compare head to head? The H2H comparison paints the same picture, with the Blues winning 76 of the 193 encounters, while the Toffees have only managed 59 victories. In addition, the visitors have won only one of their last eight encounters, and that was at Goodison Park. It is therefore perfectly understandable that the Chelsea vs. Everton betting odds are quite clearly in favor of a home win.

Chelsea – Everton Tip

Taking all of the above into account, we recommend betting on a home win in Chelsea vs. Everton. The Blues have been in better form in recent weeks, are also very strong at home and have significantly more individual quality. In addition, the visitors have nothing to play for. They have already secured their place in the league and the gap to the international places is too big. The home side still have a chance of qualifying for the Champions League. The hosts should therefore be more determined to win.

Alternatively, you could add the Chelsea vs. Everton odds for over 2.5 goals to your betting slip. The Toffees can play freely and boldly and have scored at least one goal in six of their last seven away games. On the other hand, the Blues have scored more than one goal in eight of their last ten home games, so the 2.5 goal line seems quite achievable.

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